Models
UPDATER SERVICES LIMITEDUDSCommercial Services & Supplies
₹113per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹113implied FY26 P/E 6.5× · EV/EBITDA 4.3×
Against CMP ₹207.00−45.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3163%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹98₹144
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹125₹265
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 201 |
| PV of terminal value | 349 |
| Enterprise value | 550 |
| less net debt | 208 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 758 |
| ÷ 6.70 crore shares | ₹113 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 116 | 121 | 127 | 135 | 144 |
| 10.50% | 110 | 114 | 119 | 126 | 133 |
| 11.00% | 105 | 109 | 113 | 118 | 124 |
| 11.50% | 101 | 104 | 108 | 112 | 117 |
| 12.00% | 98 | 100 | 103 | 107 | 111 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹207.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 71 · 113 · 151 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.19 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,444 | 2,736 | 2,940 | 3,160 | 3,397 | 3,652 | 3,926 | 4,220 |
| growth % | — | 11.9 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 134 | 167 | 129 | 139 | 149 | 161 | 173 | 186 |
| margin % | 5.5 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 4.4 |
| less depreciation | (54) | (47) | (47) | (51) | (54) | (58) | (63) | (68) |
| EBIT | 80 | 119 | 82 | 88 | 95 | 102 | 110 | 118 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | ||
| NOPAT | 71 | 76 | 82 | 88 | 95 | 102 | ||
| add depreciation | 54 | 47 | 47 | 51 | 54 | 58 | 63 | 68 |
| less capex | (40) | (14) | (19) | (22) | (34) | (48) | (63) | (81) |
| less working-capital build | — | (41) | (44) | (47) | (51) | (55) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (190) | 37 | — | 64 | 58 | 51 | 43 | 34 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 60 | 50 | 40 | 30 | 21 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 82 | 88 | 95 | 102 | 110 | 118 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 88 | 95 | 102 | 110 | 118 | |
| Profit after tax | 86 | 76 | 82 | 88 | 95 | 102 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 209 | 272 | 330 | 382 | 425 | 458 |
| Working capital | 547 | 588 | 632 | 679 | 730 | 785 |
| Net block and other assets | 884 | 856 | 836 | 825 | 826 | 839 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,056 | 1,132 | 1,214 | 1,302 | 1,397 | 1,499 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 86 | 92 | 99 | 107 | 115 | |
| Investing (capex) | (22) | (34) | (48) | (63) | (81) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 64 | 58 | 51 | 43 | 34 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 64 | 58 | 51 | 43 | 34 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 4.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹113 | (45.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.