Models
UPL LIMITEDUPLFertilizers & Agrochemicals
₹385per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹385implied FY26 P/E 16.0× · EV/EBITDA 5.2×
Against CMP ₹572.95−32.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3167%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹269₹616
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹558₹812
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 15,828 |
| PV of terminal value | 32,806 |
| Enterprise value | 48,634 |
| less net debt | (16,071) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 32,563 |
| ÷ 84.50 crore shares | ₹385 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 403 | 442 | 488 | 545 | 616 |
| 10.50% | 362 | 394 | 432 | 478 | 533 |
| 11.00% | 327 | 354 | 385 | 423 | 467 |
| 11.50% | 296 | 319 | 346 | 377 | 413 |
| 12.00% | 269 | 289 | 312 | 338 | 368 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹572.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 178 · 379 · 581 |
| Draws below the CMP | 89% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.28 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 53,576 | 43,098 | 46,637 | 51,839 | 57,541 | 63,871 | 70,897 | 78,695 | 87,352 |
| growth % | 15.9 | (19.6) | 8.2 | 11.2 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 | 11.0 |
| EBITDA | 10,026 | 4,287 | 7,192 | 9,333 | 10,357 | 11,497 | 12,761 | 14,165 | 15,723 |
| margin % | 18.7 | 9.9 | 15.4 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| less depreciation | (2,547) | (2,763) | (2,750) | (3,244) | (3,625) | (4,024) | (4,466) | (4,958) | (5,503) |
| EBIT | 7,479 | 1,524 | 4,442 | 6,089 | 6,732 | 7,473 | 8,295 | 9,207 | 10,220 |
| less tax on EBIT | (1,705) | (1,885) | (2,092) | (2,323) | (2,578) | (2,862) | |||
| NOPAT | 4,384 | 4,847 | 5,380 | 5,972 | 6,629 | 7,359 | |||
| add depreciation | 2,547 | 2,763 | 2,750 | 3,244 | 3,625 | 4,024 | 4,466 | 4,958 | 5,503 |
| less capex | (1,672) | (1,159) | (813) | (1,666) | (1,841) | (2,740) | (3,814) | (5,092) | (6,604) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2,041) | (2,266) | (2,515) | (2,792) | (3,099) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 6,079 | 663 | 9,338 | — | 4,590 | 4,398 | 4,109 | 3,704 | 3,159 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 4,356 | 3,761 | 3,166 | 2,570 | 1,975 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 22,046, dividends at 25.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 6,089 | 6,732 | 7,473 | 8,295 | 9,207 | 10,220 |
| Interest at 14.9% on debt | (3,285) | (3,285) | (3,285) | (3,285) | (3,285) | |
| Profit before tax | 3,447 | 4,188 | 5,010 | 5,922 | 6,935 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,922 | 2,482 | 3,015 | 3,607 | 4,264 | 4,993 |
| Dividends | (487) | (628) | (763) | (913) | (1,079) | (1,263) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5,975 | 7,572 | 8,842 | 9,673 | 9,933 | 9,464 |
| Working capital | 18,534 | 20,576 | 22,842 | 25,357 | 28,149 | 31,248 |
| Net block and other assets | 70,696 | 68,912 | 67,628 | 66,976 | 67,110 | 68,210 |
| Debt | 22,046 | 22,046 | 22,046 | 22,046 | 22,046 | 22,046 |
| Equity | 41,269 | 43,123 | 45,376 | 48,070 | 51,256 | 54,986 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 4,066 | 4,773 | 5,558 | 6,430 | 7,398 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,841) | (2,740) | (3,814) | (5,092) | (6,604) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (628) | (763) | (913) | (1,079) | (1,263) | |
| Net change in cash | 1,597 | 1,270 | 832 | 260 | (470) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 2,225 | 2,033 | 1,744 | 1,339 | 794 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 11% | 18% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹385 | (32.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.