Models
USHA FINANCIAL SERVICES LUSHAFIN
₹289per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹289implied FY26 P/E 49.9× · EV/EBITDA 22.6×
Against CMP ₹50.95+466.6%close of 27 Oct 2026
Growth the CMP implies—%no growth rate between −20% and 45% a year brings the value to the CMP on your other inputs
Value after FY3179%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹221₹424
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹27₹60
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 260 |
| PV of terminal value | 992 |
| Enterprise value | 1,252 |
| less net debt | 3 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,255 |
| ÷ 4.35 crore shares | ₹289 |
79% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 298 | 321 | 348 | 382 | 424 |
| 10.50% | 275 | 294 | 316 | 343 | 375 |
| 11.00% | 254 | 270 | 289 | 311 | 337 |
| 11.50% | 237 | 250 | 266 | 284 | 306 |
| 12.00% | 221 | 233 | 246 | 261 | 279 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹50.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 225 · 287 · 366 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 60 | 71 | 85 | 102 | 121 | 145 | 173 |
| growth % | — | 19.3 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 | 19.5 |
| EBITDA | — | 55 | 66 | 79 | 94 | 113 | 135 |
| margin % | — | 77.8 | 77.8 | 77.8 | 77.8 | 77.8 | 77.8 |
| less depreciation | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| EBIT | — | 54 | 64 | 77 | 92 | 110 | 131 |
| less tax on EBIT | (14) | (17) | (20) | (24) | (29) | (35) | |
| NOPAT | 40 | 47 | 56 | 67 | 81 | 96 | |
| add depreciation | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| less capex | (5) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (98) | — | 47 | 56 | 67 | 80 | 96 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 45 | 48 | 52 | 56 | 60 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 54 | 64 | 77 | 92 | 110 | 131 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 64 | 77 | 92 | 110 | 131 | |
| Profit after tax | 22 | 47 | 56 | 67 | 81 | 96 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | 50 | 106 | 173 | 253 | 349 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 427 | 427 | 427 | 428 | 428 | 429 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 230 | 277 | 333 | 401 | 481 | 578 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 49 | 59 | 70 | 84 | 100 | |
| Investing (capex) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 47 | 56 | 67 | 80 | 96 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 47 | 56 | 67 | 80 | 96 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19.5% | 77.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹289 | 466.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.