Models
USHA MARTIN LTD.USHAMARTIndustrial Products
₹202per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹202implied FY26 P/E 12.1× · EV/EBITDA 8.8×
Against CMP ₹493.90−59.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹157₹293
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹379₹529
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,405 |
| PV of terminal value | 4,667 |
| Enterprise value | 6,073 |
| less net debt | 96 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 6,169 |
| ÷ 30.51 crore shares | ₹202 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 209 | 224 | 242 | 265 | 293 |
| 10.50% | 193 | 205 | 220 | 238 | 260 |
| 11.00% | 179 | 190 | 202 | 217 | 235 |
| 11.50% | 167 | 176 | 187 | 199 | 213 |
| 12.00% | 157 | 165 | 174 | 184 | 196 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹493.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 164 · 201 · 244 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.78 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.59 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.04 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,268 | 3,225 | 3,474 | 3,691 | 3,913 | 4,147 | 4,396 | 4,660 | 4,939 |
| growth % | 21.6 | (1.3) | 7.7 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 513 | 599 | 597 | 688 | 728 | 771 | 818 | 867 | 919 |
| margin % | 15.7 | 18.6 | 17.2 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 | 18.6 |
| less depreciation | (67) | (77) | (98) | (116) | (125) | (133) | (141) | (149) | (158) |
| EBIT | 446 | 522 | 499 | 572 | 603 | 639 | 677 | 718 | 761 |
| less tax on EBIT | (137) | (144) | (153) | (162) | (172) | (182) | |||
| NOPAT | 435 | 459 | 486 | 515 | 546 | 579 | |||
| add depreciation | 67 | 77 | 98 | 116 | 125 | 133 | 141 | 149 | 158 |
| less capex | (182) | (278) | (245) | (198) | (211) | (208) | (203) | (197) | (190) |
| less working-capital build | — | (78) | (82) | (87) | (92) | (98) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 69 | 166 | 177 | — | 295 | 329 | 366 | 406 | 449 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 280 | 281 | 282 | 282 | 281 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 146, dividends at 19.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 572 | 603 | 639 | 677 | 718 | 761 |
| Interest at 8.1% on debt | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (12) | |
| Profit before tax | 591 | 627 | 665 | 706 | 749 | |
| Profit after tax | 466 | 450 | 477 | 506 | 537 | 570 |
| Dividends | (91) | (88) | (94) | (99) | (105) | (112) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 242 | 440 | 666 | 924 | 1,215 | 1,544 |
| Working capital | 1,290 | 1,368 | 1,450 | 1,537 | 1,629 | 1,727 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,680 | 2,766 | 2,841 | 2,903 | 2,951 | 2,983 |
| Debt | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 | 146 |
| Equity | 3,302 | 3,664 | 4,047 | 4,454 | 4,886 | 5,344 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 497 | 528 | 560 | 594 | 630 | |
| Investing (capex) | (211) | (208) | (203) | (197) | (190) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (88) | (94) | (99) | (105) | (112) | |
| Net change in cash | 198 | 226 | 257 | 292 | 329 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 286 | 320 | 357 | 397 | 440 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 18.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹202 | (59.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.