Models
UTI ASSET MNGMT CO LTDUTIAMCCapital Markets
₹411per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹411implied FY26 P/E 11.4× · EV/EBITDA 7.5×
Against CMP ₹910.45−54.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies13.7%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹325₹581
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹866₹1,418
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,543 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,697 |
| Enterprise value | 5,240 |
| less net debt | 36 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,276 |
| ÷ 12.85 crore shares | ₹411 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 423 | 452 | 486 | 528 | 581 |
| 10.50% | 393 | 417 | 445 | 479 | 520 |
| 11.00% | 367 | 387 | 411 | 438 | 471 |
| 11.50% | 345 | 362 | 381 | 404 | 431 |
| 12.00% | 325 | 340 | 356 | 376 | 398 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹910.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 351 · 411 · 483 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.72 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,267 | 1,737 | 1,851 | 1,698 | 1,613 | 1,532 | 1,456 | 1,383 | 1,314 |
| growth % | (4.0) | 37.1 | 6.6 | (8.3) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 612 | 1,033 | 1,102 | 700 | 665 | 631 | 600 | 570 | 541 |
| margin % | 48.3 | 59.5 | 59.5 | 41.2 | 41.2 | 41.2 | 41.2 | 41.2 | 41.2 |
| less depreciation | (40) | (42) | (46) | (51) | (48) | (46) | (44) | (41) | (39) |
| EBIT | 572 | 991 | 1,056 | 649 | 616 | 585 | 556 | 528 | 502 |
| less tax on EBIT | (178) | (169) | (161) | (153) | (145) | (138) | |||
| NOPAT | 470 | 447 | 424 | 403 | 383 | 364 | |||
| add depreciation | 40 | 42 | 46 | 51 | 48 | 46 | 44 | 41 | 39 |
| less capex | (109) | (147) | (70) | (68) | (65) | (60) | (55) | (51) | (47) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 287 | 179 | 467 | — | 431 | 411 | 392 | 373 | 356 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 409 | 351 | 302 | 259 | 223 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 100% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 649 | 616 | 585 | 556 | 528 | 502 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 616 | 585 | 556 | 528 | 502 | |
| Profit after tax | 404 | 447 | 424 | 403 | 383 | 364 |
| Dividends | (615) | (447) | (424) | (403) | (383) | (364) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 36 | 19 | 6 | (6) | (16) | (24) |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,008 | 5,024 | 5,038 | 5,049 | 5,059 | 5,067 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 4,505 | 4,505 | 4,505 | 4,505 | 4,505 | 4,505 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 495 | 470 | 447 | 425 | 403 | |
| Investing (capex) | (65) | (60) | (55) | (51) | (47) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (447) | (424) | (403) | (383) | (364) | |
| Net change in cash | (16) | (14) | (12) | (10) | (8) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 431 | 411 | 392 | 373 | 356 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 41.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹411 | (54.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.