Models
V-GUARD IND LTD.VGUARDConsumer Durables
₹98per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹98implied FY26 P/E 11.8× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹325.35−69.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3178%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹76₹143
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹289₹392
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 951 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,310 |
| Enterprise value | 4,261 |
| less net debt | 38 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,299 |
| ÷ 43.69 crore shares | ₹98 |
78% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 102 | 109 | 118 | 129 | 143 |
| 10.50% | 94 | 100 | 107 | 116 | 127 |
| 11.00% | 87 | 92 | 98 | 106 | 114 |
| 11.50% | 81 | 86 | 91 | 97 | 104 |
| 12.00% | 76 | 80 | 84 | 89 | 95 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹325.35; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 79 · 97 · 120 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,126 | 4,857 | 5,578 | 5,966 | 6,383 | 6,830 | 7,308 | 7,820 | 8,367 |
| growth % | 17.9 | 17.7 | 14.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 7.0 |
| EBITDA | 320 | 427 | 513 | 505 | 543 | 581 | 621 | 665 | 711 |
| margin % | 7.8 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| less depreciation | (64) | (81) | (96) | (108) | (115) | (123) | (132) | (141) | (151) |
| EBIT | 255 | 346 | 418 | 397 | 428 | 458 | 490 | 524 | 561 |
| less tax on EBIT | (97) | (104) | (112) | (119) | (128) | (137) | |||
| NOPAT | 300 | 323 | 346 | 370 | 396 | 424 | |||
| add depreciation | 64 | 81 | 96 | 108 | 115 | 123 | 132 | 141 | 151 |
| less capex | (103) | (128) | (121) | (180) | (192) | (191) | (189) | (185) | (181) |
| less working-capital build | — | (57) | (61) | (66) | (70) | (75) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 321 | 265 | 356 | — | 190 | 217 | 248 | 281 | 319 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 180 | 186 | 191 | 195 | 199 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 9, dividends at 21.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 397 | 428 | 458 | 490 | 524 | 561 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | 427 | 457 | 489 | 523 | 560 | |
| Profit after tax | 308 | 323 | 345 | 370 | 396 | 423 |
| Dividends | (65) | (68) | (73) | (78) | (84) | (90) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 47 | 167 | 311 | 480 | 677 | 905 |
| Working capital | 819 | 876 | 937 | 1,003 | 1,073 | 1,148 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,848 | 2,925 | 2,992 | 3,049 | 3,094 | 3,124 |
| Debt | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| Equity | 2,373 | 2,627 | 2,900 | 3,191 | 3,503 | 3,836 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 380 | 407 | 436 | 466 | 499 | |
| Investing (capex) | (192) | (191) | (189) | (185) | (181) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (68) | (73) | (78) | (84) | (90) | |
| Net change in cash | 121 | 143 | 169 | 197 | 228 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 189 | 217 | 247 | 281 | 318 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7% | 8.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹98 | (69.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.