Models
VADILAL INDUSTRIES LTDVADILALINDFood Products
₹3,680per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹3,680implied FY26 P/E 11.8× · EV/EBITDA 10.9×
Against CMP ₹6,915.50−46.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,850₹5,333
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹3,996₹8,447
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 692 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,008 |
| Enterprise value | 2,700 |
| less net debt | (54) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,646 |
| ÷ 0.72 crore shares | ₹3,680 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 3,802 | 4,081 | 4,415 | 4,823 | 5,333 |
| 10.50% | 3,509 | 3,740 | 4,014 | 4,342 | 4,742 |
| 11.00% | 3,258 | 3,453 | 3,680 | 3,948 | 4,270 |
| 11.50% | 3,040 | 3,206 | 3,397 | 3,620 | 3,884 |
| 12.00% | 2,850 | 2,993 | 3,155 | 3,343 | 3,562 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹6,915.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,656 · 3,620 · 4,705 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.89 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,058 | 1,125 | 1,238 | 1,503 | 1,826 | 2,219 | 2,696 | 3,276 | 3,980 |
| growth % | 51.6 | 6.4 | 10.0 | 21.4 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 163 | 220 | 238 | 249 | 303 | 368 | 448 | 544 | 661 |
| margin % | 15.4 | 19.6 | 19.2 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 |
| less depreciation | (30) | (35) | (42) | (49) | (58) | (71) | (86) | (105) | (127) |
| EBIT | 133 | 185 | 196 | 200 | 245 | 297 | 361 | 439 | 533 |
| less tax on EBIT | (49) | (60) | (73) | (89) | (108) | (131) | |||
| NOPAT | 151 | 185 | 224 | 273 | 331 | 403 | |||
| add depreciation | 30 | 35 | 42 | 49 | 58 | 71 | 86 | 105 | 127 |
| less capex | (58) | (1) | (2) | (1) | 0 | (21) | (52) | (94) | (153) |
| less working-capital build | — | (84) | (102) | (125) | (151) | (184) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (19) | 192 | 128 | — | 159 | 172 | 183 | 191 | 193 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 151 | 147 | 141 | 132 | 121 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 91, dividends at 8.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 200 | 245 | 297 | 361 | 439 | 533 |
| Interest at 18.9% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 227 | 280 | 344 | 422 | 516 | |
| Profit after tax | 170 | 172 | 211 | 260 | 318 | 390 |
| Dividends | (15) | (15) | (19) | (23) | (28) | (35) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 37 | 168 | 308 | 454 | 604 | 749 |
| Working capital | 392 | 477 | 579 | 704 | 855 | 1,039 |
| Net block and other assets | 844 | 785 | 735 | 701 | 690 | 716 |
| Debt | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 | 91 |
| Equity | 851 | 1,007 | 1,200 | 1,436 | 1,726 | 2,081 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 146 | 180 | 221 | 272 | 333 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (21) | (52) | (94) | (153) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (15) | (19) | (23) | (28) | (35) | |
| Net change in cash | 131 | 140 | 147 | 149 | 146 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 146 | 159 | 170 | 178 | 180 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 16.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹3,680 | (46.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.