Models
VALIANT ORGANICS LIMITEDVALIANTORGChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹90per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹90implied FY26 P/E 4.6× · EV/EBITDA 5.4×
Against CMP ₹396.30−77.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3169%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹53₹163
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹195₹397
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 155 |
| PV of terminal value | 347 |
| Enterprise value | 503 |
| less net debt | (251) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 252 |
| ÷ 2.80 crore shares | ₹90 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 95 | 108 | 123 | 141 | 163 |
| 10.50% | 82 | 93 | 105 | 119 | 137 |
| 11.00% | 71 | 80 | 90 | 102 | 116 |
| 11.50% | 61 | 69 | 77 | 87 | 99 |
| 12.00% | 53 | 59 | 66 | 75 | 84 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹396.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 42 · 89 · 139 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,052 | 723 | 719 | 739 | 761 | 784 | 807 | 831 | 856 |
| growth % | (8.8) | (31.3) | (0.6) | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 3.0 |
| EBITDA | 169 | 35 | 54 | 94 | 97 | 100 | 103 | 106 | 109 |
| margin % | 16.1 | 4.8 | 7.5 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 12.7 |
| less depreciation | (29) | (35) | (36) | (40) | (41) | (42) | (44) | (45) | (46) |
| EBIT | 140 | (0) | 18 | 54 | 56 | 57 | 59 | 61 | 63 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (11) | (12) | (12) | (12) | (13) | |||
| NOPAT | 43 | 44 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 50 | |||
| add depreciation | 29 | 35 | 36 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 44 | 45 | 46 |
| less capex | (136) | (74) | (31) | (34) | (34) | (39) | (44) | (50) | (55) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 102 | 10 | 26 | — | 45 | 42 | 40 | 37 | 33 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 43 | 36 | 30 | 25 | 21 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 253, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 54 | 56 | 57 | 59 | 61 | 63 |
| Interest at 7.3% on debt | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | (18) | |
| Profit before tax | 37 | 39 | 40 | 42 | 44 | |
| Profit after tax | 33 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 34 | 35 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 2 | 32 | 59 | 84 | 106 | 125 |
| Working capital | 213 | 219 | 226 | 232 | 239 | 247 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,016 | 1,009 | 1,006 | 1,007 | 1,012 | 1,021 |
| Debt | 253 | 253 | 253 | 253 | 253 | 253 |
| Equity | 759 | 789 | 820 | 852 | 886 | 921 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 64 | 67 | 69 | 72 | 74 | |
| Investing (capex) | (34) | (39) | (44) | (50) | (55) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 30 | 28 | 25 | 22 | 19 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 30 | 28 | 25 | 22 | 19 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3% | 12.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹90 | (77.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.