Models
VARDHMAN POLYTEX LTD.VARDMNPOLYTextiles & Apparels
₹32per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹32implied FY22 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 26.0×
Against CMP ₹5.95+435.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(11.9)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2778%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹24₹47
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹5₹9
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY23–FY27 free cash flow | 332 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,206 |
| Enterprise value | 1,538 |
| less net debt | 0 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,538 |
| ÷ 48.30 crore shares | ₹32 |
78% of the value sits after FY27. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 33 | 35 | 38 | 42 | 47 |
| 10.50% | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 | 41 |
| 11.00% | 28 | 30 | 32 | 34 | 37 |
| 11.50% | 26 | 28 | 29 | 31 | 34 |
| 12.00% | 24 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 31 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹5.95; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 23 · 32 · 43 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.39 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 811 | 561 | 509 | 929 | 1,207 | 1,570 | 2,041 | 2,653 | 3,448 |
| growth % | — | (30.8) | (9.3) | 82.6 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 1 | 174 | 14 | 59 | 77 | 100 | 131 | 170 | 221 |
| margin % | 0.2 | 31.0 | 2.8 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 | 6.4 |
| less depreciation | (18) | (16) | (15) | (14) | (18) | (24) | (31) | (40) | (52) |
| EBIT | (17) | 158 | (0) | 46 | 59 | 77 | 100 | 130 | 169 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (15) | (19) | (25) | (33) | (43) | |||
| NOPAT | 34 | 44 | 58 | 75 | 97 | 126 | |||
| add depreciation | 18 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 18 | 24 | 31 | 40 | 52 |
| less capex | — | — | (2) | 0 | 0 | (7) | (18) | (36) | (62) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | — | 22 | — | 62 | 74 | 87 | 101 | 116 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 59 | 63 | 67 | 70 | 73 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 46 | 59 | 77 | 100 | 130 | 169 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 59 | 77 | 100 | 130 | 169 | |
| Profit after tax | (16) | 44 | 58 | 75 | 97 | 126 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 62 | 136 | 223 | 325 | 441 |
| Working capital | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Net block and other assets | 0 | (18) | (35) | (47) | (51) | (40) |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 0 | 44 | 102 | 177 | 274 | 400 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 62 | 81 | 105 | 137 | 178 | |
| Investing (capex) | 0 | (7) | (18) | (36) | (62) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 62 | 74 | 87 | 101 | 116 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 62 | 74 | 87 | 101 | 116 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY22 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 6.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹32 | 435.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.