Models
VARDHMAN SPC STEEL LTDVSSLIndustrial Products
₹62per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹62implied FY25 P/E 5.4× · EV/EBITDA 4.8×
Against CMP ₹398.45−84.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3097%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹41₹103
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹206₹424
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 23 |
| PV of terminal value | 683 |
| Enterprise value | 706 |
| less net debt | (109) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 597 |
| ÷ 9.67 crore shares | ₹62 |
97% of the value sits after FY30. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 65 | 72 | 80 | 90 | 103 |
| 10.50% | 57 | 63 | 70 | 78 | 88 |
| 11.00% | 51 | 56 | 62 | 69 | 77 |
| 11.50% | 46 | 50 | 55 | 60 | 67 |
| 12.00% | 41 | 45 | 49 | 54 | 59 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹398.45; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 34 · 61 · 89 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.34 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,764 | 1,906 | 2,058 | 2,223 | 2,400 | 2,592 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 148 | 160 | 173 | 187 | 202 | 218 |
| margin % | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.4 |
| less depreciation | (33) | (36) | (39) | (42) | (46) | (49) |
| EBIT | 115 | 124 | 134 | 144 | 156 | 169 |
| less tax on EBIT | (29) | (32) | (34) | (37) | (40) | (43) |
| NOPAT | 85 | 92 | 100 | 107 | 116 | 125 |
| add depreciation | 33 | 36 | 39 | 42 | 46 | 49 |
| less capex | (119) | (128) | (115) | (100) | (81) | (59) |
| less working-capital build | — | (37) | (39) | (43) | (46) | (50) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (36) | (16) | 7 | 34 | 66 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (34) | (14) | 6 | 24 | 41 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 120, dividends at 17.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 115 | 124 | 134 | 144 | 156 | 169 |
| Interest at 15.6% on debt | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | (19) | |
| Profit before tax | 105 | 115 | 126 | 137 | 150 | |
| Profit after tax | 93 | 78 | 86 | 94 | 102 | 111 |
| Dividends | (16) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (18) | (20) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 11 | (53) | (98) | (121) | (118) | (86) |
| Working capital | 457 | 493 | 533 | 575 | 622 | 671 |
| Net block and other assets | 668 | 760 | 836 | 893 | 929 | 939 |
| Debt | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 | 120 |
| Equity | 798 | 862 | 933 | 1,010 | 1,095 | 1,187 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 78 | 85 | 93 | 102 | 111 | |
| Investing (capex) | (128) | (115) | (100) | (81) | (59) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (18) | (20) | |
| Net change in cash | (63) | (45) | (23) | 3 | 32 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (50) | (30) | (7) | 20 | 52 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 8.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹62 | (84.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.