Models
VARDHMAN TEXTILES LIMITEDVTLTextiles & Apparels
₹90per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹90implied FY26 P/E 3.0× · EV/EBITDA 3.6×
Against CMP ₹565.40−84.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31116%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹38₹193
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹386₹688
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (708) |
| PV of terminal value | 5,119 |
| Enterprise value | 4,411 |
| less net debt | (1,811) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,600 |
| ÷ 28.95 crore shares | ₹90 |
116% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 96 | 114 | 135 | 161 | 193 |
| 10.50% | 78 | 93 | 110 | 131 | 157 |
| 11.00% | 63 | 75 | 90 | 107 | 127 |
| 11.50% | 50 | 60 | 72 | 87 | 103 |
| 12.00% | 38 | 47 | 58 | 70 | 83 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹565.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 34 · 89 · 148 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.45 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,137 | 9,505 | 9,785 | 9,869 | 9,968 | 10,067 | 10,168 | 10,270 | 10,372 |
| growth % | 5.4 | (6.2) | 2.9 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 1,324 | 973 | 1,263 | 1,239 | 1,256 | 1,268 | 1,281 | 1,294 | 1,307 |
| margin % | 13.1 | 10.2 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 | 12.6 |
| less depreciation | (394) | (405) | (401) | (465) | (468) | (473) | (478) | (483) | (488) |
| EBIT | 930 | 569 | 862 | 774 | 787 | 795 | 803 | 811 | 819 |
| less tax on EBIT | (173) | (176) | (177) | (179) | (181) | (183) | |||
| NOPAT | 601 | 612 | 618 | 624 | 630 | 637 | |||
| add depreciation | 394 | 405 | 401 | 465 | 468 | 473 | 478 | 483 | 488 |
| less capex | (622) | (284) | (1,033) | (1,738) | (1,754) | (1,471) | (1,182) | (886) | (585) |
| less working-capital build | — | (45) | (45) | (45) | (46) | (46) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,231 | (1,339) | 611 | — | (718) | (425) | (125) | 181 | 493 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (682) | (363) | (96) | 126 | 308 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,855, dividends at 19.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 774 | 787 | 795 | 803 | 811 | 819 |
| Interest at 6% on debt | (111) | (111) | (111) | (111) | (111) | |
| Profit before tax | 676 | 684 | 692 | 700 | 708 | |
| Profit after tax | 745 | 525 | 531 | 538 | 544 | 550 |
| Dividends | (146) | (103) | (104) | (105) | (107) | (108) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 43 | (865) | (1,480) | (1,797) | (1,809) | (1,510) |
| Working capital | 4,453 | 4,498 | 4,543 | 4,588 | 4,634 | 4,680 |
| Net block and other assets | 9,369 | 10,655 | 11,653 | 12,356 | 12,760 | 12,857 |
| Debt | 1,855 | 1,855 | 1,855 | 1,855 | 1,855 | 1,855 |
| Equity | 10,588 | 11,010 | 11,438 | 11,870 | 12,307 | 12,750 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 949 | 960 | 970 | 981 | 991 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,754) | (1,471) | (1,182) | (886) | (585) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (103) | (104) | (105) | (107) | (108) | |
| Net change in cash | (908) | (615) | (317) | (12) | 299 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (805) | (511) | (211) | 94 | 406 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 12.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹90 | (84.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.