Models
VARROC ENGINEERING LTD.VARROCAuto Components
₹269per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹269implied FY26 P/E 20.8× · EV/EBITDA 6.0×
Against CMP ₹868.90−69.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies41.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹199₹409
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹462₹896
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,113 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,608 |
| Enterprise value | 4,721 |
| less net debt | (613) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,108 |
| ÷ 15.28 crore shares | ₹269 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 279 | 303 | 331 | 365 | 409 |
| 10.50% | 254 | 274 | 297 | 325 | 359 |
| 11.00% | 233 | 250 | 269 | 292 | 319 |
| 11.50% | 215 | 229 | 245 | 264 | 286 |
| 12.00% | 199 | 211 | 225 | 241 | 259 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹868.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 188 · 266 · 357 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.42 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 6,863 | 7,552 | 8,154 | 8,890 | 9,691 | 10,563 | 11,513 | 12,550 | 13,679 |
| growth % | 17.4 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 | 9.0 |
| EBITDA | 547 | 774 | 641 | 786 | 853 | 930 | 1,013 | 1,104 | 1,204 |
| margin % | 8.0 | 10.2 | 7.9 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.8 |
| less depreciation | (337) | (337) | (323) | (332) | (359) | (391) | (426) | (464) | (506) |
| EBIT | 210 | 437 | 318 | 454 | 494 | 539 | 587 | 640 | 698 |
| less tax on EBIT | (150) | (164) | (178) | (194) | (212) | (231) | |||
| NOPAT | 304 | 331 | 360 | 393 | 428 | 467 | |||
| add depreciation | 337 | 337 | 323 | 332 | 359 | 391 | 426 | 464 | 506 |
| less capex | (531) | (257) | (279) | (397) | (436) | (474) | (515) | (559) | (607) |
| less working-capital build | — | (13) | (14) | (15) | (17) | (18) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 130 | 381 | 458 | — | 240 | 264 | 289 | 317 | 347 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 228 | 225 | 223 | 220 | 217 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 738, dividends at 6.8% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 454 | 494 | 539 | 587 | 640 | 698 |
| Interest at 15.9% on debt | (117) | (117) | (117) | (117) | (117) | |
| Profit before tax | 377 | 421 | 470 | 523 | 580 | |
| Profit after tax | 225 | 252 | 282 | 314 | 350 | 388 |
| Dividends | (15) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (24) | (26) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 125 | 270 | 436 | 625 | 839 | 1,082 |
| Working capital | 146 | 159 | 173 | 188 | 205 | 223 |
| Net block and other assets | 4,604 | 4,681 | 4,764 | 4,853 | 4,947 | 5,049 |
| Debt | 738 | 738 | 738 | 738 | 738 | 738 |
| Equity | 1,818 | 2,053 | 2,316 | 2,609 | 2,935 | 3,297 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 598 | 659 | 725 | 797 | 876 | |
| Investing (capex) | (436) | (474) | (515) | (559) | (607) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (17) | (19) | (21) | (24) | (26) | |
| Net change in cash | 145 | 166 | 189 | 215 | 243 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 162 | 185 | 210 | 238 | 269 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 9% | 8.8% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹269 | (69.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.