Models
VEDANTA LIMITEDVEDLDiversified Metals
₹223per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹223implied FY26 P/E 4.4× · EV/EBITDA 4.9×
Against CMP ₹263.70−15.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(2.5)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3189%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹148₹375
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹250₹795
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 12,701 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,00,294 |
| Enterprise value | 1,12,995 |
| less net debt | (25,625) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 87,370 |
| ÷ 391.00 crore shares | ₹223 |
89% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 234 | 260 | 290 | 328 | 375 |
| 10.50% | 207 | 229 | 254 | 284 | 321 |
| 11.00% | 185 | 203 | 223 | 248 | 278 |
| 11.50% | 165 | 180 | 198 | 218 | 243 |
| 12.00% | 148 | 161 | 176 | 193 | 213 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹263.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 164 · 224 · 294 |
| Draws below the CMP | 78% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.75 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,47,308 | 1,43,727 | 1,52,968 | 78,437 | 74,515 | 70,789 | 67,250 | 63,887 | 60,693 |
| growth % | 11.0 | (2.4) | 6.4 | (48.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 34,205 | 38,001 | 44,211 | 23,204 | 22,056 | 20,954 | 19,906 | 18,911 | 17,965 |
| margin % | 23.2 | 26.4 | 28.9 | 29.6 | 29.6 | 29.6 | 29.6 | 29.6 | 29.6 |
| less depreciation | (10,555) | (10,723) | (11,096) | (4,810) | (4,545) | (4,318) | (4,102) | (3,897) | (3,702) |
| EBIT | 23,650 | 27,278 | 33,115 | 18,394 | 17,511 | 16,636 | 15,804 | 15,014 | 14,263 |
| less tax on EBIT | (4,985) | (4,745) | (4,508) | (4,283) | (4,069) | (3,865) | |||
| NOPAT | 13,409 | 12,766 | 12,127 | 11,521 | 10,945 | 10,398 | |||
| add depreciation | 10,555 | 10,723 | 11,096 | 4,810 | 4,545 | 4,318 | 4,102 | 3,897 | 3,702 |
| less capex | (13,787) | (16,752) | (17,005) | (20,876) | (19,821) | (15,418) | (11,406) | (7,756) | (4,443) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 19,278 | 18,902 | 22,557 | — | (2,510) | 1,028 | 4,218 | 7,086 | 9,657 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (2,382) | 879 | 3,249 | 4,918 | 6,038 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 26,995, dividends at 85.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 18,394 | 17,511 | 16,636 | 15,804 | 15,014 | 14,263 |
| Interest at 5.6% on debt | (1,512) | (1,512) | (1,512) | (1,512) | (1,512) | |
| Profit before tax | 15,999 | 15,124 | 14,292 | 13,502 | 12,751 | |
| Profit after tax | 17,391 | 11,664 | 11,025 | 10,419 | 9,843 | 9,296 |
| Dividends | (14,825) | (9,937) | (9,394) | (8,877) | (8,386) | (7,920) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,370 | (12,179) | (21,647) | (27,409) | (29,811) | (29,176) |
| Working capital | (537) | (537) | (537) | (537) | (537) | (537) |
| Net block and other assets | 2,32,404 | 2,47,680 | 2,58,780 | 2,66,083 | 2,69,942 | 2,70,682 |
| Debt | 26,995 | 26,995 | 26,995 | 26,995 | 26,995 | 26,995 |
| Equity | 68,577 | 70,303 | 71,935 | 73,477 | 74,934 | 76,309 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 16,209 | 15,343 | 14,521 | 13,740 | 12,998 | |
| Investing (capex) | (19,821) | (15,418) | (11,406) | (7,756) | (4,443) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (9,937) | (9,394) | (8,877) | (8,386) | (7,920) | |
| Net change in cash | (13,549) | (9,468) | (5,761) | (2,402) | 635 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (3,612) | (75) | 3,116 | 5,984 | 8,555 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 29.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹223 | (15.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.