Models
VELJAN DENISON LTD.VELJANIndustrial Products
₹747per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹747implied FY26 P/E 18.6× · EV/EBITDA 8.1×
Against CMP ₹1,890.00−60.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹589₹1,060
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹812₹1,980
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 83 |
| PV of terminal value | 238 |
| Enterprise value | 321 |
| less net debt | 15 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 336 |
| ÷ 0.45 crore shares | ₹747 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 770 | 823 | 886 | 963 | 1,060 |
| 10.50% | 714 | 758 | 810 | 872 | 948 |
| 11.00% | 667 | 704 | 747 | 798 | 859 |
| 11.50% | 625 | 657 | 693 | 735 | 785 |
| 12.00% | 589 | 616 | 647 | 683 | 724 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,890.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 609 · 741 · 893 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.79 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.56 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 121 | 138 | 156 | 164 | 173 | 183 | 193 | 203 | 214 |
| growth % | — | 14.2 | 13.1 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 26 | 33 | 37 | 40 | 42 | 44 | 47 | 49 | 52 |
| margin % | 21.3 | 24.2 | 23.7 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.2 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) | (8) |
| EBIT | 20 | 28 | 31 | 33 | 35 | 37 | 39 | 41 | 44 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | (12) | |||
| NOPAT | 24 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 30 | 31 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 8 |
| less capex | (14) | (10) | (10) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | 5 | 9 | — | 20 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 23 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 19 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 14 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1, dividends at 14.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 33 | 35 | 37 | 39 | 41 | 44 |
| Interest at 12.3% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 35 | 37 | 39 | 41 | 43 | |
| Profit after tax | 26 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 30 | 31 |
| Dividends | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 16 | 32 | 49 | 66 | 83 | 102 |
| Working capital | 101 | 106 | 112 | 118 | 125 | 131 |
| Net block and other assets | 166 | 166 | 166 | 167 | 168 | 170 |
| Debt | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Equity | 251 | 272 | 295 | 319 | 345 | 371 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 27 | 28 | 30 | 31 | 33 | |
| Investing (capex) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | 16 | 17 | 17 | 18 | 18 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 20 | 21 | 21 | 22 | 23 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 24.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹747 | (60.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.