Models
VENKY S (INDIA) LIMITEDVENKEYSFood Products
₹793per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹793implied FY26 P/E 6.4× · EV/EBITDA 6.3×
Against CMP ₹1,778.40−55.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹596₹1,185
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,165₹1,800
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 284 |
| PV of terminal value | 934 |
| Enterprise value | 1,218 |
| less net debt | (101) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,117 |
| ÷ 1.41 crore shares | ₹793 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 821 | 887 | 967 | 1,063 | 1,185 |
| 10.50% | 752 | 807 | 872 | 949 | 1,045 |
| 11.00% | 693 | 739 | 793 | 856 | 933 |
| 11.50% | 641 | 680 | 726 | 779 | 841 |
| 12.00% | 596 | 630 | 669 | 713 | 765 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,778.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 481 · 783 · 1,080 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.84 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.32 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,234 | 3,738 | 3,307 | 3,727 | 4,193 | 4,717 | 5,307 | 5,970 | 6,717 |
| growth % | (3.8) | (11.7) | (11.5) | 12.7 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 12.5 |
| EBITDA | 112 | 123 | 172 | 192 | 218 | 245 | 276 | 310 | 349 |
| margin % | 2.6 | 3.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.2 |
| less depreciation | (35) | (35) | (37) | (37) | (42) | (47) | (53) | (60) | (67) |
| EBIT | 76 | 88 | 135 | 155 | 176 | 198 | 223 | 251 | 282 |
| less tax on EBIT | (39) | (44) | (50) | (56) | (63) | (71) | |||
| NOPAT | 116 | 132 | 149 | 167 | 188 | 212 | |||
| add depreciation | 35 | 35 | 37 | 37 | 42 | 47 | 53 | 60 | 67 |
| less capex | (42) | (50) | (46) | (41) | (46) | (53) | (61) | (70) | (81) |
| less working-capital build | — | (68) | (76) | (86) | (96) | (108) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 44 | 32 | 20 | — | 60 | 67 | 74 | 81 | 90 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 57 | 57 | 57 | 57 | 56 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 163, dividends at 10.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 155 | 176 | 198 | 223 | 251 | 282 |
| Interest at 10.4% on debt | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | (17) | |
| Profit before tax | 159 | 181 | 206 | 234 | 265 | |
| Profit after tax | 135 | 119 | 136 | 154 | 175 | 199 |
| Dividends | (14) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (19) | (21) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 62 | 97 | 137 | 181 | 232 | 288 |
| Working capital | 540 | 608 | 684 | 769 | 865 | 974 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,706 | 1,710 | 1,716 | 1,724 | 1,735 | 1,748 |
| Debt | 163 | 163 | 163 | 163 | 163 | 163 |
| Equity | 1,596 | 1,703 | 1,824 | 1,962 | 2,119 | 2,297 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 94 | 107 | 122 | 139 | 158 | |
| Investing (capex) | (46) | (53) | (61) | (70) | (81) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (19) | (21) | |
| Net change in cash | 35 | 40 | 45 | 50 | 56 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 48 | 54 | 61 | 69 | 77 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 12.5% | 5.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹793 | (55.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.