Models
VENUS PIPES & TUBES LTDVENUSPIPESIndustrial Products
₹574per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹574implied FY26 P/E 11.4× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹2,025.00−71.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31108%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹352₹1,020
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹890₹1,998
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (110) |
| PV of terminal value | 1,579 |
| Enterprise value | 1,468 |
| less net debt | (279) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,189 |
| ÷ 2.07 crore shares | ₹574 |
108% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 603 | 679 | 770 | 881 | 1,020 |
| 10.50% | 525 | 588 | 663 | 752 | 862 |
| 11.00% | 459 | 512 | 574 | 647 | 735 |
| 11.50% | 402 | 447 | 499 | 560 | 632 |
| 12.00% | 352 | 391 | 435 | 487 | 546 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,025.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 296 · 562 · 836 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.87 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 552 | 802 | 959 | 1,167 | 1,418 | 1,723 | 2,093 | 2,543 | 3,090 |
| growth % | 42.8 | 45.2 | 19.5 | 21.7 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
| EBITDA | 69 | 146 | 168 | 190 | 231 | 281 | 341 | 414 | 504 |
| margin % | 12.5 | 18.2 | 17.5 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 | 16.3 |
| less depreciation | (2) | (12) | (19) | (24) | (28) | (34) | (42) | (51) | (62) |
| EBIT | 67 | 135 | 149 | 167 | 203 | 246 | 299 | 364 | 442 |
| less tax on EBIT | (43) | (52) | (64) | (77) | (94) | (114) | |||
| NOPAT | 124 | 150 | 183 | 222 | 270 | 328 | |||
| add depreciation | 2 | 12 | 19 | 24 | 28 | 34 | 42 | 51 | 62 |
| less capex | (162) | (107) | (108) | (189) | (230) | (220) | (195) | (149) | (74) |
| less working-capital build | — | (75) | (91) | (111) | (135) | (163) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (153) | (55) | (40) | — | (126) | (94) | (41) | 37 | 152 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (119) | (80) | (32) | 26 | 95 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 286, dividends at 2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 167 | 203 | 246 | 299 | 364 | 442 |
| Interest at 17.1% on debt | (49) | (49) | (49) | (49) | (49) | |
| Profit before tax | 154 | 197 | 250 | 315 | 393 | |
| Profit after tax | 102 | 114 | 147 | 186 | 234 | 292 |
| Dividends | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 6 | (158) | (291) | (372) | (376) | (266) |
| Working capital | 349 | 424 | 516 | 626 | 761 | 924 |
| Net block and other assets | 944 | 1,145 | 1,330 | 1,483 | 1,581 | 1,593 |
| Debt | 286 | 286 | 286 | 286 | 286 | 286 |
| Equity | 668 | 780 | 924 | 1,106 | 1,335 | 1,621 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 68 | 90 | 117 | 150 | 190 | |
| Investing (capex) | (230) | (220) | (195) | (149) | (74) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | (6) | |
| Net change in cash | (164) | (133) | (81) | (4) | 110 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (162) | (130) | (78) | 1 | 116 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 21.5% | 16.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹574 | (71.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.