₹1,618per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹1,618implied FY26 P/E 18.6× · EV/EBITDA 14.5×
Against CMP ₹1,611.00+0.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies18.8%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹1,240₹2,374
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹424₹2,044
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 428 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,710 |
| Enterprise value | 2,139 |
| less net debt | 25 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,164 |
| ÷ 1.34 crore shares | ₹1,618 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 1,673 | 1,800 | 1,953 | 2,140 | 2,374 |
| 10.50% | 1,539 | 1,645 | 1,770 | 1,921 | 2,104 |
| 11.00% | 1,425 | 1,514 | 1,618 | 1,741 | 1,889 |
| 11.50% | 1,326 | 1,402 | 1,490 | 1,592 | 1,713 |
| 12.00% | 1,240 | 1,305 | 1,380 | 1,466 | 1,566 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,611.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 1,266 · 1,602 · 2,023 |
| Draws below the CMP | 51% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.51 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.49 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 556 | 601 | 648 | 770 | 916 | 1,090 | 1,297 | 1,543 | 1,837 |
| growth % | (7.2) | 8.3 | 7.7 | 18.8 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 19.0 |
| EBITDA | 60 | 60 | 73 | 147 | 175 | 208 | 248 | 295 | 351 |
| margin % | 10.8 | 9.9 | 11.3 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 | 19.1 |
| less depreciation | (32) | (26) | (23) | (26) | (30) | (36) | (43) | (51) | (61) |
| EBIT | 28 | 33 | 51 | 122 | 145 | 172 | 205 | 244 | 290 |
| less tax on EBIT | (28) | (34) | (40) | (48) | (57) | (68) | |||
| NOPAT | 93 | 111 | 132 | 157 | 187 | 222 | |||
| add depreciation | 32 | 26 | 23 | 26 | 30 | 36 | 43 | 51 | 61 |
| less capex | (8) | (9) | (10) | (38) | (45) | (51) | (57) | (65) | (73) |
| less working-capital build | — | (23) | (27) | (32) | (38) | (45) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 29 | 28 | 77 | — | 74 | 90 | 110 | 135 | 165 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 70 | 77 | 85 | 94 | 103 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 122 | 145 | 172 | 205 | 244 | 290 |
| Interest at 4.7% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 145 | 172 | 205 | 244 | 290 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 111 | 132 | 157 | 187 | 222 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 25 | 99 | 189 | 299 | 434 | 598 |
| Working capital | 119 | 142 | 169 | 201 | 239 | 285 |
| Net block and other assets | 709 | 724 | 739 | 754 | 767 | 780 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 664 | 775 | 906 | 1,063 | 1,250 | 1,473 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 118 | 141 | 168 | 200 | 237 | |
| Investing (capex) | (45) | (51) | (57) | (65) | (73) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 74 | 90 | 110 | 135 | 165 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 74 | 90 | 110 | 135 | 165 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 19% | 19.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹1,618 | 0.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.