₹237per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹237implied FY26 P/E 15.2× · EV/EBITDA 10.1×
Against CMP ₹223.90+6.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies1.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹182₹348
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹130₹273
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 764 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,795 |
| Enterprise value | 2,558 |
| less net debt | (271) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,287 |
| ÷ 9.63 crore shares | ₹237 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 246 | 264 | 287 | 314 | 348 |
| 10.50% | 226 | 242 | 260 | 282 | 308 |
| 11.00% | 209 | 222 | 237 | 255 | 277 |
| 11.50% | 195 | 206 | 219 | 233 | 251 |
| 12.00% | 182 | 191 | 202 | 215 | 229 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹223.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 193 · 235 · 287 |
| Draws below the CMP | 36% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.74 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.13 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 161 | 362 | 471 | 482 | 494 | 506 | 519 | 531 | 545 |
| growth % | 115.0 | 124.2 | 30.2 | 2.3 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.5 |
| EBITDA | (72) | 54 | 36 | 253 | 259 | 266 | 272 | 279 | 286 |
| margin % | (44.8) | 14.9 | 7.6 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 |
| less depreciation | (45) | (65) | (206) | (58) | (60) | (61) | (63) | (64) | (66) |
| EBIT | (118) | (11) | (170) | 194 | 199 | 204 | 209 | 215 | 220 |
| less tax on EBIT | (30) | (31) | (32) | (32) | (33) | (34) | |||
| NOPAT | 164 | 168 | 173 | 177 | 181 | 186 | |||
| add depreciation | 45 | 65 | 206 | 58 | 60 | 61 | 63 | 64 | 66 |
| less capex | (91) | (13) | (15) | (14) | (14) | (29) | (45) | (62) | (79) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (76) | 13 | 17 | — | 214 | 205 | 195 | 184 | 173 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 203 | 175 | 150 | 128 | 108 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 301, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 194 | 199 | 204 | 209 | 215 | 220 |
| Interest at 19.1% on debt | (57) | (57) | (57) | (57) | (57) | |
| Profit before tax | 142 | 147 | 152 | 157 | 163 | |
| Profit after tax | 106 | 120 | 124 | 128 | 133 | 137 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 30 | 195 | 351 | 497 | 633 | 757 |
| Working capital | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| Net block and other assets | 1,805 | 1,759 | 1,727 | 1,710 | 1,707 | 1,720 |
| Debt | 301 | 301 | 301 | 301 | 301 | 301 |
| Equity | 958 | 1,078 | 1,202 | 1,331 | 1,464 | 1,601 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 180 | 185 | 191 | 197 | 203 | |
| Investing (capex) | (14) | (29) | (45) | (62) | (79) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 165 | 156 | 146 | 135 | 124 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 165 | 156 | 146 | 135 | 124 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2.5% | 52.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹237 | 6.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.