Models
VICEROY HOTELS LIMITEDVHLTD
₹-28per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(28)implied FY26 P/E (6.5)× · EV/EBITDA 1.4×
Against CMP ₹119.00−123.9%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31424%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(38)₹(9)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹112₹155
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (170) |
| PV of terminal value | 222 |
| Enterprise value | 52 |
| less net debt | (245) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (193) |
| ÷ 6.76 crore shares | ₹(28) |
424% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (28) | (24) | (20) | (15) | (9) |
| 10.50% | (31) | (28) | (25) | (21) | (16) |
| 11.00% | (33) | (31) | (28) | (25) | (22) |
| 11.50% | (36) | (34) | (32) | (29) | (26) |
| 12.00% | (38) | (36) | (34) | (32) | (29) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹119.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (38) · (29) · (18) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 116 | 138 | 137 | 143 | 150 | 156 | 163 | 171 | 178 |
| growth % | 77.7 | 19.2 | (0.6) | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| EBITDA | 6 | 15 | 34 | 38 | 40 | 42 | 43 | 45 | 47 |
| margin % | 5.1 | 10.6 | 24.8 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 | 26.6 |
| less depreciation | (9) | (14) | (12) | (15) | (16) | (16) | (17) | (18) | (19) |
| EBIT | (3) | 1 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 29 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | |||
| NOPAT | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | |||
| add depreciation | 9 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 |
| less capex | 0 | (21) | (18) | (123) | (129) | (106) | (81) | (53) | (22) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (23) | (181) | 14 | — | (92) | (67) | (40) | (11) | 21 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (87) | (58) | (31) | (8) | 13 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 264, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 29 |
| Interest at 5.4% on debt | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | (14) | |
| Profit before tax | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 19 | (85) | (165) | (218) | (241) | (232) |
| Working capital | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Net block and other assets | 538 | 651 | 740 | 804 | 839 | 842 |
| Debt | 264 | 264 | 264 | 264 | 264 | 264 |
| Equity | 267 | 275 | 285 | 296 | 307 | 320 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 24 | 26 | 28 | 30 | 31 | |
| Investing (capex) | (129) | (106) | (81) | (53) | (22) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (104) | (80) | (53) | (23) | 9 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (104) | (80) | (53) | (23) | 9 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4.5% | 26.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(28) | (123.9)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.