Models
VIKRAM THERMO (INDIA) LTD.BSE 530477Chemicals & Petrochemicals
₹199per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹199implied FY26 P/E 16.2× · EV/EBITDA 11.6×
Against CMP ₹339.55−41.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies24.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3177%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹154₹290
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹132₹323
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 145 |
| PV of terminal value | 481 |
| Enterprise value | 625 |
| less net debt | 0 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 625 |
| ÷ 3.14 crore shares | ₹199 |
77% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 206 | 221 | 240 | 262 | 290 |
| 10.50% | 190 | 203 | 218 | 236 | 258 |
| 11.00% | 176 | 187 | 199 | 214 | 232 |
| 11.50% | 164 | 173 | 184 | 196 | 211 |
| 12.00% | 154 | 162 | 171 | 181 | 193 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹339.55; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 167 · 198 · 237 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.69 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 112 | 126 | 126 | 134 | 142 | 151 | 160 | 169 | 179 |
| growth % | 20.5 | 13.3 | (0.1) | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| EBITDA | 26 | 38 | 19 | 54 | 57 | 61 | 64 | 68 | 72 |
| margin % | 23.4 | 29.7 | 15.3 | 40.3 | 40.3 | 40.3 | 40.3 | 40.3 | 40.3 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| EBIT | 23 | 34 | 17 | 51 | 54 | 57 | 61 | 65 | 68 |
| less tax on EBIT | (13) | (14) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (18) | |||
| NOPAT | 38 | 40 | 42 | 45 | 48 | 50 | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| less capex | (13) | (7) | (40) | (10) | (10) | (9) | (8) | (6) | (5) |
| less working-capital build | — | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 0 | 16 | (16) | — | 30 | 34 | 38 | 42 | 46 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 29 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 5, dividends at 8.1% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 51 | 54 | 57 | 61 | 65 | 68 |
| Interest at 8.4% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 54 | 57 | 60 | 64 | 68 | |
| Profit after tax | 38 | 40 | 42 | 45 | 47 | 50 |
| Dividends | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 5 | 32 | 62 | 96 | 133 | 175 |
| Working capital | 44 | 47 | 49 | 52 | 55 | 59 |
| Net block and other assets | 139 | 146 | 152 | 156 | 159 | 160 |
| Debt | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Equity | 157 | 193 | 232 | 273 | 316 | 362 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 40 | 43 | 45 | 48 | 51 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (9) | (8) | (6) | (5) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | 27 | 30 | 34 | 38 | 42 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 30 | 34 | 37 | 41 | 46 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 6% | 40.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹199 | (41.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.