Models
VIKRAN ENGINEERING LTDVIKRANConstruction
₹72per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹72implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 12.2×
Against CMP ₹57.10+26.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(2.7)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹54₹109
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹51₹118
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 514 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,609 |
| Enterprise value | 2,123 |
| less net debt | (259) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,864 |
| ÷ 25.79 crore shares | ₹72 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 75 | 81 | 89 | 98 | 109 |
| 10.50% | 68 | 74 | 80 | 87 | 96 |
| 11.00% | 63 | 67 | 72 | 78 | 85 |
| 11.50% | 58 | 62 | 66 | 71 | 77 |
| 12.00% | 54 | 57 | 61 | 65 | 70 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹57.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 59 · 72 · 88 |
| Draws below the CMP | 7% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.68 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.67 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,249 | 1,349 | 1,457 | 1,574 | 1,700 | 1,836 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 174 | 188 | 203 | 219 | 236 | 255 |
| margin % | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 | 13.9 |
| less depreciation | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) |
| EBIT | 171 | 183 | 198 | 214 | 231 | 250 |
| less tax on EBIT | (41) | (44) | (48) | (52) | (56) | (60) |
| NOPAT | 129 | 139 | 150 | 162 | 175 | 189 |
| add depreciation | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 |
| less capex | (3) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) |
| less working-capital build | — | (24) | (26) | (28) | (31) | (33) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 115 | 124 | 133 | 144 | 155 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 109 | 106 | 103 | 100 | 97 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 292, dividends at 4.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 171 | 183 | 198 | 214 | 231 | 250 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) | (23) | |
| Profit before tax | 160 | 175 | 191 | 208 | 226 | |
| Profit after tax | 92 | 121 | 132 | 145 | 157 | 172 |
| Dividends | (4) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 33 | 125 | 226 | 335 | 454 | 584 |
| Working capital | 305 | 329 | 355 | 384 | 415 | 448 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,166 | 2,166 | 2,166 | 2,166 | 2,167 | 2,168 |
| Debt | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 | 292 |
| Equity | 1,237 | 1,354 | 1,481 | 1,619 | 1,770 | 1,934 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 101 | 111 | 121 | 132 | 144 | |
| Investing (capex) | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | |
| Net change in cash | 92 | 100 | 110 | 119 | 130 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 97 | 106 | 116 | 126 | 137 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 13.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹72 | 26.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.