Models
VILAS TRANSCORE LIMITEDVILAS
₹85per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹85implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 4.4×
Against CMP ₹346.20−75.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31127%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹51₹153
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹320₹604
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (60) |
| PV of terminal value | 287 |
| Enterprise value | 227 |
| less net debt | (20) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 207 |
| ÷ 2.45 crore shares | ₹85 |
127% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 89 | 100 | 114 | 132 | 153 |
| 10.50% | 77 | 87 | 98 | 112 | 129 |
| 11.00% | 67 | 75 | 85 | 96 | 109 |
| 11.50% | 58 | 65 | 73 | 82 | 94 |
| 12.00% | 51 | 57 | 63 | 71 | 81 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹346.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (45) · 84 · 174 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.66 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.16 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 353 | 461 | 599 | 779 | 1,012 | 1,316 | 1,710 |
| growth % | — | 30.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | — | 51 | 67 | 87 | 113 | 147 | 192 |
| margin % | — | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 | 11.2 |
| less depreciation | — | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (15) |
| EBIT | — | 47 | 62 | 80 | 104 | 136 | 176 |
| less tax on EBIT | (11) | (14) | (19) | (24) | (32) | (41) | |
| NOPAT | 36 | 47 | 61 | 80 | 104 | 135 | |
| add depreciation | — | 4 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 15 |
| less capex | (41) | (39) | (51) | (52) | (48) | (39) | (18) |
| less working-capital build | — | (36) | (47) | (62) | (80) | (104) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | (76) | — | (35) | (31) | (21) | (3) | 28 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | (33) | (26) | (16) | (2) | 17 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 39, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 47 | 62 | 80 | 104 | 136 | 176 |
| Interest at 5.4% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 60 | 78 | 102 | 133 | 174 | |
| Profit after tax | 40 | 46 | 60 | 78 | 102 | 133 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 18 | (18) | (50) | (73) | (78) | (52) |
| Working capital | 122 | 158 | 206 | 267 | 348 | 452 |
| Net block and other assets | 266 | 312 | 356 | 396 | 423 | 426 |
| Debt | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 |
| Equity | 329 | 374 | 434 | 512 | 614 | 748 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 15 | 19 | 26 | 34 | 45 | |
| Investing (capex) | (51) | (52) | (48) | (39) | (18) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (36) | (32) | (23) | (5) | 26 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (36) | (32) | (23) | (5) | 26 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 11.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹85 | (75.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.