₹87per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹87implied FY24 P/E 3.1× · EV/EBITDA 4.5×
Against CMP ₹631.00−86.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY2987%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹64₹132
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹376₹851
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY25–FY29 free cash flow | 52 |
| PV of terminal value | 342 |
| Enterprise value | 394 |
| less net debt | (6) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 388 |
| ÷ 4.47 crore shares | ₹87 |
87% of the value sits after FY29. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 90 | 98 | 107 | 118 | 132 |
| 10.50% | 82 | 89 | 96 | 105 | 116 |
| 11.00% | 75 | 81 | 87 | 94 | 103 |
| 11.50% | 70 | 74 | 79 | 85 | 93 |
| 12.00% | 64 | 68 | 73 | 78 | 84 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹631.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 64 · 87 · 113 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.49 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.02 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 211 | 278 | 318 | 318 | 318 | 318 | 318 | 318 | 318 |
| growth % | 16.6 | 32.1 | 14.3 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| EBITDA | 53 | 79 | 95 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 87 | 87 |
| margin % | 25.1 | 28.4 | 29.8 | 27.3 | 27.3 | 27.3 | 27.3 | 27.3 | 27.3 |
| less depreciation | (23) | (23) | (31) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) | (34) |
| EBIT | 30 | 56 | 64 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 |
| less tax on EBIT | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | (13) | |||
| NOPAT | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | |||
| add depreciation | 23 | 23 | 31 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 |
| less capex | (33) | (30) | (48) | (76) | (76) | (68) | (59) | (50) | (41) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 4 | 29 | 40 | — | (3) | 6 | 15 | 24 | 33 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (2) | 5 | 12 | 17 | 21 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 19, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 | 53 |
| Interest at 12.4% on debt | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit before tax | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | 50 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 | 38 |
| Dividends | (4) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 13 | 9 | 14 | 27 | 49 | 81 |
| Working capital | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 | 103 |
| Net block and other assets | 283 | 326 | 359 | 384 | 399 | 406 |
| Debt | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
| Equity | 320 | 358 | 396 | 434 | 472 | 510 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | 72 | |
| Investing (capex) | (76) | (68) | (59) | (50) | (41) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (4) | 5 | 13 | 22 | 31 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (4) | 5 | 13 | 22 | 31 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY24 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 0% | 27.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹87 | (86.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.