Models
VINATI ORGANICS LTDVINATIORGAChemicals & Petrochemicals
₹487per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹487implied FY26 P/E 11.3× · EV/EBITDA 7.7×
Against CMP ₹1,296.00−62.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3176%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹377₹707
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,203₹1,850
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,191 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,854 |
| Enterprise value | 5,046 |
| less net debt | 4 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,050 |
| ÷ 10.37 crore shares | ₹487 |
76% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 503 | 540 | 585 | 639 | 707 |
| 10.50% | 464 | 495 | 531 | 575 | 628 |
| 11.00% | 431 | 457 | 487 | 523 | 566 |
| 11.50% | 402 | 424 | 449 | 479 | 514 |
| 12.00% | 377 | 396 | 417 | 442 | 472 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,296.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 407 · 488 · 585 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.71 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.68 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,085 | 1,900 | 2,248 | 2,227 | 2,205 | 2,183 | 2,161 | 2,139 | 2,118 |
| growth % | 29.0 | (8.9) | 18.3 | (0.9) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) | (1.0) |
| EBITDA | 595 | 470 | 581 | 654 | 648 | 642 | 635 | 629 | 623 |
| margin % | 28.6 | 24.7 | 25.8 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 29.4 |
| less depreciation | (52) | (73) | (89) | (111) | (110) | (109) | (108) | (107) | (106) |
| EBIT | 543 | 397 | 492 | 543 | 538 | 533 | 527 | 522 | 517 |
| less tax on EBIT | (138) | (137) | (135) | (134) | (133) | (131) | |||
| NOPAT | 405 | 401 | 397 | 393 | 389 | 385 | |||
| add depreciation | 52 | 73 | 89 | 111 | 110 | 109 | 108 | 107 | 106 |
| less capex | (278) | (398) | (500) | (270) | (267) | (231) | (196) | (161) | (127) |
| less working-capital build | — | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 299 | (66) | (42) | — | 252 | 283 | 313 | 342 | 371 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 239 | 242 | 241 | 238 | 232 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 543 | 538 | 533 | 527 | 522 | 517 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 538 | 533 | 527 | 522 | 517 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 401 | 397 | 393 | 389 | 385 |
| Dividends | (78) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 4 | 256 | 538 | 851 | 1,193 | 1,564 |
| Working capital | 711 | 704 | 697 | 690 | 683 | 677 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,874 | 3,031 | 3,153 | 3,240 | 3,294 | 3,315 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 3,162 | 3,563 | 3,960 | 4,354 | 4,743 | 5,128 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 519 | 513 | 508 | 503 | 498 | |
| Investing (capex) | (267) | (231) | (196) | (161) | (127) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 252 | 283 | 313 | 342 | 371 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 252 | 283 | 313 | 342 | 371 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -1% | 29.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹487 | (62.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.