Models
VINTAGE COFFEE N BVRGS LVINCOFEAgricultural Food & other Products
₹17per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹17implied FY26 P/E 3.2× · EV/EBITDA 2.9×
Against CMP ₹174.97−90.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31231%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹4₹44
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹120₹189
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (382) |
| PV of terminal value | 673 |
| Enterprise value | 291 |
| less net debt | (38) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 253 |
| ÷ 14.57 crore shares | ₹17 |
231% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 19 | 23 | 29 | 36 | 44 |
| 10.50% | 14 | 18 | 23 | 28 | 35 |
| 11.00% | 10 | 14 | 17 | 22 | 27 |
| 11.50% | 7 | 10 | 13 | 17 | 21 |
| 12.00% | 4 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹174.97; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (25) · 17 · 47 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.63 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 63 | 131 | 309 | 553 | 719 | 935 | 1,215 | 1,580 | 2,053 |
| growth % | 71.9 | 108.4 | 135.4 | 79.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 15 | 25 | 53 | 100 | 129 | 168 | 219 | 284 | 370 |
| margin % | 24.5 | 19.2 | 17.2 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| less depreciation | (5) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (16) | (21) | (27) | (35) |
| EBIT | 10 | 20 | 46 | 90 | 117 | 152 | 198 | 257 | 335 |
| less tax on EBIT | (17) | (22) | (29) | (37) | (48) | (63) | |||
| NOPAT | 73 | 95 | 124 | 161 | 209 | 272 | |||
| add depreciation | 5 | 5 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 27 | 35 |
| less capex | (0) | (2) | (9) | (157) | (204) | (204) | (185) | (136) | (42) |
| less working-capital build | — | (70) | (91) | (118) | (154) | (200) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 5 | (46) | (35) | — | (167) | (155) | (122) | (54) | 65 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (158) | (133) | (94) | (38) | 41 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 124, dividends at 2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 90 | 117 | 152 | 198 | 257 | 335 |
| Interest at 8.8% on debt | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | (11) | |
| Profit before tax | 106 | 141 | 187 | 247 | 324 | |
| Profit after tax | 72 | 86 | 115 | 152 | 200 | 263 |
| Dividends | (1) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 86 | (91) | (258) | (391) | (458) | (408) |
| Working capital | 233 | 303 | 394 | 513 | 667 | 866 |
| Net block and other assets | 405 | 597 | 785 | 950 | 1,059 | 1,066 |
| Debt | 124 | 124 | 124 | 124 | 124 | 124 |
| Equity | 569 | 654 | 766 | 915 | 1,112 | 1,369 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 29 | 40 | 54 | 73 | 98 | |
| Investing (capex) | (204) | (204) | (185) | (136) | (42) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (4) | (5) | |
| Net change in cash | (177) | (166) | (134) | (67) | 51 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (176) | (164) | (131) | (63) | 56 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 18% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹17 | (90.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.