Models
VIPUL LIMITEDVIPULLTDRealty
₹15per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹15implied FY25 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA (17.6)×
Against CMP ₹12.97+13.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3069%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹11₹22
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹7₹19
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY26–FY30 free cash flow | 77 |
| PV of terminal value | 174 |
| Enterprise value | 252 |
| less net debt | (45) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 207 |
| ÷ 14.10 crore shares | ₹15 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 15 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 22 |
| 10.50% | 14 | 15 | 16 | 18 | 19 |
| 11.00% | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 |
| 11.50% | 12 | 13 | 13 | 14 | 16 |
| 12.00% | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 14 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹12.97; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 13 · 15 · 17 |
| Draws below the CMP | 11% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −1.00 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.01 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 138 | 75 | 206 | 87 | 83 | 79 | 75 | 71 | 67 |
| growth % | 271.5 | (45.8) | 175.6 | (57.8) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | (26) | (78) | 82 | (14) | (14) | (13) | (12) | (12) | (11) |
| margin % | (18.7) | (104.8) | 39.7 | (16.4) | (16.4) | (16.4) | (16.4) | (16.4) | (16.4) |
| less depreciation | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (2) | (2) | (2) |
| EBIT | (29) | (81) | 79 | (17) | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) |
| less tax on EBIT | 4 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | |||
| NOPAT | (13) | (12) | (12) | (11) | (10) | (10) | |||
| add depreciation | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| less capex | (0) | (0) | (2) | (1) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) |
| less working-capital build | — | 33 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 27 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 17 | 420 | (114) | — | 22 | 21 | 19 | 18 | 17 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 21 | 18 | 15 | 13 | 11 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 85, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (17) | (16) | (15) | (15) | (14) | (13) |
| Interest at 17.2% on debt | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | |
| Profit before tax | (31) | (30) | (29) | (28) | (28) | |
| Profit after tax | (28) | (23) | (22) | (22) | (21) | (21) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 40 | 52 | 62 | 70 | 77 | 83 |
| Working capital | 666 | 632 | 601 | 571 | 542 | 515 |
| Net block and other assets | 484 | 482 | 482 | 481 | 481 | 482 |
| Debt | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 |
| Equity | 377 | 354 | 332 | 310 | 288 | 268 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 13 | 12 | 11 | 9 | 8 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 11 | 10 | 8 | 7 | 6 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY25 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | -16.4% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹15 | 13.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.