Models
VISAKA INDUSTRIES LIMITEDVISAKAINDCement & Cement Products
₹124per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹124implied FY26 P/E 12.5× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹90.60+36.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹91₹189
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹50₹104
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 403 |
| PV of terminal value | 945 |
| Enterprise value | 1,347 |
| less net debt | (278) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,069 |
| ÷ 8.64 crore shares | ₹124 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 129 | 140 | 153 | 169 | 189 |
| 10.50% | 117 | 126 | 137 | 150 | 165 |
| 11.00% | 107 | 115 | 124 | 134 | 147 |
| 11.50% | 99 | 105 | 113 | 121 | 132 |
| 12.00% | 91 | 97 | 103 | 110 | 119 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹90.60; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 81 · 123 · 166 |
| Draws below the CMP | 16% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.38 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.13 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,653 | 1,527 | 1,543 | 1,678 | 1,820 | 1,975 | 2,143 | 2,325 | 2,523 |
| growth % | 16.8 | (7.7) | 1.1 | 8.7 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.5 |
| EBITDA | 136 | 88 | 99 | 199 | 217 | 235 | 255 | 277 | 300 |
| margin % | 8.2 | 5.8 | 6.4 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 | 11.9 |
| less depreciation | (50) | (59) | (65) | (65) | (71) | (77) | (84) | (91) | (98) |
| EBIT | 85 | 29 | 34 | 134 | 146 | 158 | 171 | 186 | 202 |
| less tax on EBIT | (27) | (30) | (32) | (35) | (38) | (41) | |||
| NOPAT | 107 | 116 | 126 | 137 | 148 | 161 | |||
| add depreciation | 50 | 59 | 65 | 65 | 71 | 77 | 84 | 91 | 98 |
| less capex | (228) | (119) | (30) | (37) | (40) | (56) | (74) | (94) | (118) |
| less working-capital build | — | (36) | (39) | (43) | (46) | (50) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (199) | (116) | 84 | — | 111 | 108 | 104 | 98 | 91 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 105 | 92 | 80 | 68 | 57 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 302, dividends at 5.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 134 | 146 | 158 | 171 | 186 | 202 |
| Interest at 8.4% on debt | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | (25) | |
| Profit before tax | 120 | 133 | 146 | 161 | 176 | |
| Profit after tax | 85 | 96 | 106 | 116 | 128 | 141 |
| Dividends | (4) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (7) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 24 | 110 | 192 | 270 | 341 | 404 |
| Working capital | 426 | 462 | 502 | 544 | 591 | 641 |
| Net block and other assets | 899 | 868 | 846 | 837 | 840 | 860 |
| Debt | 302 | 302 | 302 | 302 | 302 | 302 |
| Equity | 827 | 918 | 1,018 | 1,128 | 1,250 | 1,383 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 131 | 143 | 157 | 172 | 189 | |
| Investing (capex) | (40) | (56) | (74) | (94) | (118) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (5) | (5) | (6) | (7) | (7) | |
| Net change in cash | 86 | 82 | 78 | 71 | 63 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 91 | 88 | 84 | 78 | 71 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8.5% | 11.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹124 | 36.6% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.