Models
VISHAL MEGA MART LIMITEDVMMRetailing
₹54per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹54implied FY26 P/E 28.2× · EV/EBITDA 13.1×
Against CMP ₹101.71−47.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies41.1%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹42₹77
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹99₹154
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 6,242 |
| PV of terminal value | 18,426 |
| Enterprise value | 24,668 |
| less net debt | 530 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 25,198 |
| ÷ 467.64 crore shares | ₹54 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 56 | 60 | 64 | 70 | 77 |
| 10.50% | 51 | 55 | 59 | 63 | 69 |
| 11.00% | 48 | 51 | 54 | 58 | 62 |
| 11.50% | 45 | 47 | 50 | 53 | 57 |
| 12.00% | 42 | 44 | 46 | 49 | 52 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹101.71; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 41 · 53 · 70 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.57 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 10,716 | 12,906 | 15,552 | 18,740 | 22,582 | 27,211 | 32,790 |
| growth % | — | 20.4 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 | 20.5 |
| EBITDA | 1,530 | 1,884 | 2,271 | 2,736 | 3,297 | 3,973 | 4,787 |
| margin % | 14.3 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 | 14.6 |
| less depreciation | (590) | (673) | (809) | (974) | (1,174) | (1,415) | (1,705) |
| EBIT | 940 | 1,210 | 1,462 | 1,762 | 2,123 | 2,558 | 3,082 |
| less tax on EBIT | (307) | (371) | (447) | (539) | (650) | (783) | |
| NOPAT | 903 | 1,091 | 1,314 | 1,584 | 1,908 | 2,299 | |
| add depreciation | 590 | 673 | 809 | 974 | 1,174 | 1,415 | 1,705 |
| less capex | (264) | (325) | (389) | (644) | (987) | (1,444) | (2,046) |
| less working-capital build | — | (87) | (105) | (127) | (153) | (184) | |
| Free cash flow to firm | 1,135 | — | 1,423 | 1,540 | 1,644 | 1,727 | 1,774 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||
| Present value | 1,351 | 1,317 | 1,267 | 1,198 | 1,109 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,210 | 1,462 | 1,762 | 2,123 | 2,558 | 3,082 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 1,462 | 1,762 | 2,123 | 2,558 | 3,082 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 1,091 | 1,314 | 1,584 | 1,908 | 2,299 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 530 | 1,953 | 3,493 | 5,137 | 6,864 | 8,638 |
| Working capital | 424 | 512 | 617 | 744 | 896 | 1,080 |
| Net block and other assets | 10,495 | 10,075 | 9,744 | 9,557 | 9,586 | 9,927 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 7,413 | 8,504 | 9,818 | 11,402 | 13,310 | 15,609 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,812 | 2,183 | 2,631 | 3,170 | 3,820 | |
| Investing (capex) | (389) | (644) | (987) | (1,444) | (2,046) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 1,423 | 1,540 | 1,644 | 1,727 | 1,774 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 1,423 | 1,540 | 1,644 | 1,727 | 1,774 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20.5% | 14.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹54 | (47.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.