Models
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₹217per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹217implied FY26 P/E 12.5× · EV/EBITDA 3.5×
Against CMP ₹805.20−73.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3154%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹180₹290
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹458₹888
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 834 |
| PV of terminal value | 972 |
| Enterprise value | 1,806 |
| less net debt | (80) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,726 |
| ÷ 7.96 crore shares | ₹217 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 223 | 235 | 250 | 268 | 290 |
| 10.50% | 210 | 220 | 232 | 246 | 264 |
| 11.00% | 198 | 207 | 217 | 229 | 243 |
| 11.50% | 189 | 196 | 204 | 214 | 225 |
| 12.00% | 180 | 186 | 193 | 201 | 211 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹805.20; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 56 · 214 · 361 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.97 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.17 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.11 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,465 | 2,786 | 3,254 | 3,789 | 4,415 | 5,143 | 5,992 | 6,980 | 8,132 |
| growth % | 47.9 | 13.0 | 16.8 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 | 16.5 |
| EBITDA | 269 | 213 | 401 | 512 | 596 | 694 | 809 | 942 | 1,098 |
| margin % | 10.9 | 7.6 | 12.3 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 | 13.5 |
| less depreciation | (180) | (222) | (233) | (297) | (344) | (401) | (467) | (544) | (634) |
| EBIT | 89 | (9) | 168 | 215 | 252 | 293 | 342 | 398 | 464 |
| less tax on EBIT | (43) | (50) | (58) | (68) | (79) | (92) | |||
| NOPAT | 172 | 202 | 235 | 274 | 319 | 371 | |||
| add depreciation | 180 | 222 | 233 | 297 | 344 | 401 | 467 | 544 | 634 |
| less capex | (278) | (123) | (124) | (160) | (185) | (282) | (406) | (563) | (761) |
| less working-capital build | — | (82) | (95) | (111) | (130) | (151) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (98) | 263 | 226 | — | 279 | 258 | 224 | 170 | 94 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 264 | 221 | 172 | 118 | 58 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 100, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 215 | 252 | 293 | 342 | 398 | 464 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | (8) | |
| Profit before tax | 244 | 285 | 334 | 390 | 456 | |
| Profit after tax | 124 | 195 | 228 | 267 | 312 | 365 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 20 | 292 | 543 | 761 | 925 | 1,012 |
| Working capital | 496 | 578 | 674 | 785 | 914 | 1,065 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,264 | 2,105 | 1,986 | 1,925 | 1,944 | 2,071 |
| Debt | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
| Equity | 951 | 1,146 | 1,375 | 1,642 | 1,954 | 2,319 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 458 | 534 | 623 | 727 | 848 | |
| Investing (capex) | (185) | (282) | (406) | (563) | (761) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 272 | 252 | 217 | 164 | 87 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 272 | 252 | 217 | 164 | 87 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 16.5% | 13.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹217 | (73.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.