Models
VRAJ IRON AND STEEL LTDVRAJFerrous Metals
₹37per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹37implied FY26 P/E 3.4× · EV/EBITDA 2.9×
Against CMP ₹125.00−70.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3149%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹30₹51
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹93₹160
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 83 |
| PV of terminal value | 80 |
| Enterprise value | 163 |
| less net debt | (41) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 122 |
| ÷ 3.30 crore shares | ₹37 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 38 | 41 | 44 | 47 | 51 |
| 10.50% | 36 | 38 | 40 | 43 | 46 |
| 11.00% | 33 | 35 | 37 | 39 | 42 |
| 11.50% | 31 | 33 | 34 | 36 | 39 |
| 12.00% | 30 | 31 | 32 | 34 | 36 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹125.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (30) · 37 · 87 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.83 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 420 | 475 | 588 | 729 | 904 | 1,121 | 1,390 | 1,724 |
| growth % | — | 13.1 | 23.8 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 | 24.0 |
| EBITDA | 76 | 62 | 57 | 70 | 87 | 108 | 133 | 165 |
| margin % | 18.2 | 13.1 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 | 9.6 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (8) | (23) | (28) | (35) | (44) | (54) | (67) |
| EBIT | 71 | 54 | 34 | 42 | 52 | 64 | 79 | 98 |
| less tax on EBIT | (9) | (11) | (14) | (17) | (21) | (26) | ||
| NOPAT | 25 | 30 | 38 | 47 | 58 | 72 | ||
| add depreciation | 6 | 8 | 23 | 28 | 35 | 44 | 54 | 67 |
| less capex | (1) | (5) | (8) | (10) | (20) | (34) | (54) | (81) |
| less working-capital build | — | (21) | (27) | (33) | (41) | (51) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 19 | 9 | — | 27 | 26 | 23 | 18 | 8 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 26 | 22 | 18 | 12 | 5 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 41, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 34 | 42 | 52 | 64 | 79 | 98 |
| Interest at 10.1% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 37 | 47 | 60 | 75 | 94 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 27 | 35 | 44 | 55 | 69 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 0 | 24 | 48 | 68 | 83 | 87 |
| Working capital | 89 | 111 | 137 | 170 | 211 | 262 |
| Net block and other assets | 406 | 388 | 373 | 363 | 362 | 376 |
| Debt | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 |
| Equity | 430 | 457 | 492 | 535 | 590 | 659 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 34 | 43 | 54 | 68 | 85 | |
| Investing (capex) | (10) | (20) | (34) | (54) | (81) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 24 | 23 | 20 | 15 | 5 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 24 | 23 | 20 | 15 | 5 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 24% | 9.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹37 | (70.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.