Models
VRL LOGISTICS LIMITEDVRLLOGTransport Services
₹187per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹187implied FY26 P/E 12.2× · EV/EBITDA 5.7×
Against CMP ₹288.30−35.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies12.3%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹141₹279
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹225₹310
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,002 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,708 |
| Enterprise value | 3,710 |
| less net debt | (440) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,270 |
| ÷ 17.49 crore shares | ₹187 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 194 | 209 | 228 | 250 | 279 |
| 10.50% | 178 | 190 | 205 | 224 | 246 |
| 11.00% | 164 | 174 | 187 | 202 | 220 |
| 11.50% | 151 | 161 | 171 | 184 | 198 |
| 12.00% | 141 | 149 | 158 | 168 | 180 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹288.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 138 · 186 · 239 |
| Draws below the CMP | 99% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.86 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,649 | 2,889 | 3,161 | 3,221 | 3,286 | 3,351 | 3,418 | 3,487 | 3,556 |
| growth % | 10.6 | 9.1 | 9.4 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| EBITDA | 402 | 394 | 573 | 650 | 664 | 677 | 690 | 704 | 718 |
| margin % | 15.2 | 13.6 | 18.1 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.2 |
| less depreciation | (159) | (216) | (254) | (261) | (266) | (271) | (277) | (282) | (288) |
| EBIT | 243 | 178 | 319 | 389 | 398 | 406 | 414 | 422 | 430 |
| less tax on EBIT | (99) | (101) | (103) | (105) | (108) | (110) | |||
| NOPAT | 290 | 296 | 302 | 308 | 314 | 321 | |||
| add depreciation | 159 | 216 | 254 | 261 | 266 | 271 | 277 | 282 | 288 |
| less capex | (412) | (285) | (449) | (299) | (306) | (315) | (325) | (335) | (346) |
| less working-capital build | — | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (94) | 139 | 109 | — | 255 | 256 | 258 | 259 | 261 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 242 | 219 | 199 | 180 | 163 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 456, dividends at 73.9% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 389 | 398 | 406 | 414 | 422 | 430 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | (36) | |
| Profit before tax | 361 | 369 | 377 | 385 | 394 | |
| Profit after tax | 237 | 269 | 275 | 281 | 287 | 293 |
| Dividends | (175) | (199) | (203) | (208) | (212) | (217) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 15 | 44 | 70 | 93 | 113 | 130 |
| Working capital | 103 | 105 | 107 | 110 | 112 | 114 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,486 | 2,526 | 2,570 | 2,618 | 2,671 | 2,728 |
| Debt | 456 | 456 | 456 | 456 | 456 | 456 |
| Equity | 1,142 | 1,213 | 1,284 | 1,358 | 1,433 | 1,509 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 533 | 544 | 556 | 567 | 579 | |
| Investing (capex) | (306) | (315) | (325) | (335) | (346) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (199) | (203) | (208) | (212) | (217) | |
| Net change in cash | 29 | 26 | 23 | 20 | 17 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 228 | 229 | 231 | 232 | 234 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 2% | 20.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹187 | (35.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.