Models
VST INDUSTRIES LTDVSTINDCigarettes & Tobacco Products
₹266per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹266implied FY26 P/E 16.2× · EV/EBITDA 10.0×
Against CMP ₹204.22+30.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(2.5)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3174%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹208₹381
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹200₹287
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,174 |
| PV of terminal value | 3,315 |
| Enterprise value | 4,489 |
| less net debt | 24 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 4,513 |
| ÷ 16.99 crore shares | ₹266 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 274 | 294 | 317 | 346 | 381 |
| 10.50% | 254 | 270 | 289 | 312 | 340 |
| 11.00% | 236 | 250 | 266 | 284 | 307 |
| 11.50% | 221 | 233 | 246 | 262 | 280 |
| 12.00% | 208 | 218 | 229 | 242 | 257 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹204.22; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 209 · 263 · 327 |
| Draws below the CMP | 8% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.82 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.50 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,673 | 1,838 | 1,809 | 2,046 | 2,312 | 2,612 | 2,952 | 3,336 | 3,769 |
| growth % | 7.2 | 9.9 | (1.5) | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| EBITDA | 383 | 353 | 379 | 450 | 509 | 575 | 649 | 734 | 829 |
| margin % | 22.9 | 19.2 | 21.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 | 22.0 |
| less depreciation | (30) | (38) | (44) | (101) | (113) | (128) | (145) | (163) | (185) |
| EBIT | 352 | 315 | 335 | 349 | 395 | 447 | 505 | 570 | 645 |
| less tax on EBIT | (88) | (99) | (112) | (127) | (143) | (162) | |||
| NOPAT | 261 | 296 | 335 | 378 | 427 | 483 | |||
| add depreciation | 30 | 38 | 44 | 101 | 113 | 128 | 145 | 163 | 185 |
| less capex | (404) | (94) | (41) | (42) | (49) | (80) | (118) | (165) | (222) |
| less working-capital build | — | (78) | (88) | (99) | (112) | (127) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (222) | 73 | 152 | — | 283 | 295 | 306 | 314 | 319 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 269 | 252 | 236 | 218 | 200 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 58% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 349 | 395 | 447 | 505 | 570 | 645 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 395 | 447 | 505 | 570 | 645 | |
| Profit after tax | 292 | 296 | 335 | 378 | 427 | 483 |
| Dividends | (170) | (172) | (194) | (219) | (248) | (280) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 24 | 135 | 236 | 323 | 389 | 428 |
| Working capital | 598 | 676 | 763 | 863 | 975 | 1,101 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,394 | 1,329 | 1,281 | 1,254 | 1,255 | 1,292 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,446 | 1,570 | 1,711 | 1,869 | 2,049 | 2,252 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 332 | 375 | 424 | 479 | 541 | |
| Investing (capex) | (49) | (80) | (118) | (165) | (222) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (172) | (194) | (219) | (248) | (280) | |
| Net change in cash | 111 | 101 | 86 | 66 | 39 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 283 | 295 | 306 | 314 | 319 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13% | 22% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹266 | 30.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.