Models
VST TILLERS TRACTORS LTDVSTTILLERSAgricultural Commercial & Construction Vehicles
₹2,729per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹2,729implied FY26 P/E 21.7× · EV/EBITDA 14.1×
Against CMP ₹4,042.70−32.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3180%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹2,097₹3,991
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4,062₹6,374
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 466 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,849 |
| Enterprise value | 2,314 |
| less net debt | 47 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,361 |
| ÷ 0.87 crore shares | ₹2,729 |
80% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 2,820 | 3,033 | 3,289 | 3,601 | 3,991 |
| 10.50% | 2,597 | 2,774 | 2,983 | 3,234 | 3,541 |
| 11.00% | 2,407 | 2,556 | 2,729 | 2,935 | 3,181 |
| 11.50% | 2,242 | 2,368 | 2,515 | 2,685 | 2,887 |
| 12.00% | 2,097 | 2,206 | 2,331 | 2,475 | 2,642 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹4,042.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2,071 · 2,683 · 3,447 |
| Draws below the CMP | 98% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.46 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.34 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 968 | 995 | 1,240 | 1,544 | 1,923 | 2,394 | 2,980 | 3,710 |
| growth % | — | 2.7 | 24.7 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 | 24.5 |
| EBITDA | 124 | 110 | 165 | 205 | 256 | 318 | 396 | 493 |
| margin % | 12.8 | 11.0 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
| less depreciation | (27) | (25) | (26) | (32) | (40) | (50) | (63) | (78) |
| EBIT | 97 | 84 | 139 | 173 | 215 | 268 | 334 | 416 |
| less tax on EBIT | (36) | (45) | (56) | (70) | (87) | (108) | ||
| NOPAT | 103 | 128 | 159 | 198 | 247 | 307 | ||
| add depreciation | 27 | 25 | 26 | 32 | 40 | 50 | 63 | 78 |
| less capex | (7) | (20) | (26) | (32) | (42) | (55) | (72) | (93) |
| less working-capital build | — | (47) | (59) | (73) | (91) | (114) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | 41 | 56 | — | 81 | 98 | 120 | 146 | 178 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 76 | 84 | 92 | 101 | 111 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 16.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 139 | 173 | 215 | 268 | 334 | 416 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 173 | 215 | 268 | 334 | 416 | |
| Profit after tax | 105 | 128 | 159 | 198 | 247 | 307 |
| Dividends | (17) | (21) | (26) | (33) | (41) | (51) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 47 | 106 | 178 | 265 | 371 | 498 |
| Working capital | 194 | 241 | 300 | 374 | 465 | 579 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,104 | 1,104 | 1,106 | 1,111 | 1,120 | 1,136 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,094 | 1,201 | 1,334 | 1,500 | 1,706 | 1,963 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 113 | 141 | 175 | 218 | 272 | |
| Investing (capex) | (32) | (42) | (55) | (72) | (93) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (21) | (26) | (33) | (41) | (51) | |
| Net change in cash | 59 | 72 | 87 | 105 | 127 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 81 | 98 | 120 | 146 | 178 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 24.5% | 13.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹2,729 | (32.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.