₹91per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹91implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 16.4×
Against CMP ₹155.00−41.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies22.5%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹72₹127
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹111₹224
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 885 |
| PV of terminal value | 2,034 |
| Enterprise value | 2,918 |
| less net debt | 88 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 3,006 |
| ÷ 33.13 crore shares | ₹91 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 94 | 100 | 107 | 116 | 127 |
| 10.50% | 87 | 92 | 98 | 105 | 114 |
| 11.00% | 81 | 86 | 91 | 97 | 104 |
| 11.50% | 77 | 80 | 84 | 89 | 95 |
| 12.00% | 72 | 76 | 79 | 83 | 88 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹155.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 66 · 90 · 117 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.36 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.24 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 1,489 | 1,608 | 1,737 | 1,876 | 2,026 | 2,188 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 178 | 193 | 208 | 225 | 243 | 263 |
| margin % | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| less depreciation | (104) | (113) | (122) | (131) | (142) | (153) |
| EBIT | 74 | 80 | 87 | 94 | 101 | 109 |
| less tax on EBIT | 79 | 87 | 93 | 101 | 109 | 118 |
| NOPAT | 153 | 167 | 180 | 195 | 210 | 227 |
| add depreciation | 104 | 113 | 122 | 131 | 142 | 153 |
| less capex | (30) | (32) | (63) | (98) | (138) | (184) |
| less working-capital build | — | (0) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | 247 | 239 | 228 | 214 | 196 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | 234 | 204 | 176 | 148 | 122 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 74 | 80 | 87 | 94 | 101 | 109 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 80 | 87 | 94 | 101 | 109 | |
| Profit after tax | 189 | 167 | 180 | 195 | 210 | 227 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 88 | 335 | 574 | 802 | 1,016 | 1,212 |
| Working capital | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,657 | 1,577 | 1,518 | 1,484 | 1,480 | 1,510 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 1,132 | 1,299 | 1,479 | 1,674 | 1,884 | 2,111 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 279 | 301 | 325 | 351 | 380 | |
| Investing (capex) | (32) | (63) | (98) | (138) | (184) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 247 | 239 | 228 | 214 | 196 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 247 | 239 | 228 | 214 | 196 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 12% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹91 | (41.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.