Models
WELSPUN CORP LIMITEDWELCORPIndustrial Products
₹654per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹654implied FY26 P/E 7.5× · EV/EBITDA 8.0×
Against CMP ₹2,686.90−75.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31108%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹440₹1,085
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹710₹2,785
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (1,488) |
| PV of terminal value | 19,399 |
| Enterprise value | 17,912 |
| less net debt | (650) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 17,262 |
| ÷ 26.38 crore shares | ₹654 |
108% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 682 | 755 | 843 | 951 | 1,085 |
| 10.50% | 607 | 668 | 740 | 826 | 932 |
| 11.00% | 543 | 595 | 654 | 725 | 810 |
| 11.50% | 488 | 532 | 582 | 641 | 710 |
| 12.00% | 440 | 478 | 521 | 570 | 628 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹2,686.90; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 432 · 641 · 888 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.85 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.47 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.08 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 9,758 | 17,340 | 13,978 | 16,770 | 20,124 | 24,149 | 28,979 | 34,775 | 41,729 |
| growth % | 50.0 | 77.7 | (19.4) | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.0 |
| EBITDA | 485 | 1,561 | 2,134 | 2,236 | 2,677 | 3,212 | 3,854 | 4,625 | 5,550 |
| margin % | 5.0 | 9.0 | 15.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 | 13.3 |
| less depreciation | (303) | (348) | (351) | (355) | (423) | (507) | (609) | (730) | (876) |
| EBIT | 182 | 1,214 | 1,783 | 1,881 | 2,254 | 2,705 | 3,246 | 3,895 | 4,674 |
| less tax on EBIT | (549) | (658) | (790) | (948) | (1,137) | (1,365) | |||
| NOPAT | 1,332 | 1,596 | 1,915 | 2,298 | 2,757 | 3,309 | |||
| add depreciation | 303 | 348 | 351 | 355 | 423 | 507 | 609 | 730 | 876 |
| less capex | (1,194) | (299) | (853) | (2,532) | (3,039) | (2,887) | (2,553) | (1,970) | (1,052) |
| less working-capital build | — | (610) | (733) | (879) | (1,055) | (1,266) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (1,379) | 1,007 | 651 | — | (1,631) | (1,197) | (526) | 463 | 1,868 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (1,548) | (1,024) | (405) | 321 | 1,168 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2,163, dividends at 8.2% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 1,881 | 2,254 | 2,705 | 3,246 | 3,895 | 4,674 |
| Interest at 13.7% on debt | (296) | (296) | (296) | (296) | (296) | |
| Profit before tax | 1,958 | 2,408 | 2,949 | 3,598 | 4,377 | |
| Profit after tax | 1,613 | 1,386 | 1,705 | 2,088 | 2,548 | 3,099 |
| Dividends | (132) | (114) | (140) | (171) | (209) | (254) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1,513 | (442) | (1,989) | (2,895) | (2,851) | (1,447) |
| Working capital | 3,051 | 3,661 | 4,394 | 5,273 | 6,328 | 7,593 |
| Net block and other assets | 15,871 | 18,487 | 20,867 | 22,811 | 24,051 | 24,226 |
| Debt | 2,163 | 2,163 | 2,163 | 2,163 | 2,163 | 2,163 |
| Equity | 9,406 | 10,678 | 12,244 | 14,160 | 16,499 | 19,344 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 1,198 | 1,480 | 1,818 | 2,223 | 2,710 | |
| Investing (capex) | (3,039) | (2,887) | (2,553) | (1,970) | (1,052) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (114) | (140) | (171) | (209) | (254) | |
| Net change in cash | (1,954) | (1,547) | (907) | 44 | 1,404 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (1,841) | (1,407) | (735) | 253 | 1,658 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 20% | 13.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹654 | (75.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.