Models
WELSPUN ENTERPRISES LTD.WELENTConstruction
₹391per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹391implied FY26 P/E 17.3× · EV/EBITDA 10.2×
Against CMP ₹789.00−50.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies14.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹278₹616
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹412₹825
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 1,952 |
| PV of terminal value | 5,152 |
| Enterprise value | 7,104 |
| less net debt | (1,798) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 5,306 |
| ÷ 13.56 crore shares | ₹391 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 408 | 446 | 491 | 547 | 616 |
| 10.50% | 368 | 400 | 437 | 481 | 536 |
| 11.00% | 334 | 360 | 391 | 428 | 472 |
| 11.50% | 304 | 327 | 353 | 383 | 419 |
| 12.00% | 278 | 298 | 320 | 345 | 375 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹789.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 314 · 388 · 480 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.71 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.66 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,758 | 2,872 | 3,584 | 3,615 | 3,652 | 3,688 | 3,725 | 3,762 | 3,800 |
| growth % | 96.8 | 4.1 | 24.8 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 731 | 425 | 522 | 699 | 705 | 712 | 719 | 726 | 733 |
| margin % | 26.5 | 14.8 | 14.6 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 | 19.3 |
| less depreciation | (13) | (28) | (51) | (51) | (51) | (52) | (52) | (53) | (53) |
| EBIT | 718 | 398 | 472 | 648 | 654 | 660 | 667 | 673 | 680 |
| less tax on EBIT | (165) | (167) | (168) | (170) | (172) | (173) | |||
| NOPAT | 483 | 487 | 492 | 497 | 502 | 507 | |||
| add depreciation | 13 | 28 | 51 | 51 | 51 | 52 | 52 | 53 | 53 |
| less capex | (5) | (70) | (52) | (34) | (33) | (40) | (48) | (56) | (64) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (117) | (415) | (325) | — | 505 | 503 | 501 | 499 | 496 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 480 | 430 | 386 | 346 | 310 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 1,972, dividends at 11.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 648 | 654 | 660 | 667 | 673 | 680 |
| Interest at 11.4% on debt | (225) | (225) | (225) | (225) | (225) | |
| Profit before tax | 429 | 435 | 442 | 449 | 455 | |
| Profit after tax | 350 | 319 | 324 | 329 | 334 | 339 |
| Dividends | (41) | (37) | (38) | (39) | (39) | (40) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 174 | 474 | 772 | 1,067 | 1,359 | 1,648 |
| Working capital | (305) | (305) | (305) | (305) | (305) | (305) |
| Net block and other assets | 7,460 | 7,442 | 7,431 | 7,427 | 7,430 | 7,441 |
| Debt | 1,972 | 1,972 | 1,972 | 1,972 | 1,972 | 1,972 |
| Equity | 3,261 | 3,543 | 3,829 | 4,120 | 4,415 | 4,715 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 371 | 376 | 381 | 387 | 392 | |
| Investing (capex) | (33) | (40) | (48) | (56) | (64) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (37) | (38) | (39) | (39) | (40) | |
| Net change in cash | 300 | 298 | 295 | 292 | 289 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 338 | 336 | 333 | 331 | 329 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 19.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹391 | (50.4)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.