Models
WELSPUN SPECIALTY SOL LWELSPLSOLIndustrial Products
₹8per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹8implied FY26 P/E 22.1× · EV/EBITDA 12.2×
Against CMP ₹56.10−86.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3198%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹5₹12
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹36₹63
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 9 |
| PV of terminal value | 564 |
| Enterprise value | 573 |
| less net debt | (24) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 549 |
| ÷ 71.00 crore shares | ₹8 |
98% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
| 10.50% | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
| 11.00% | 7 | 7 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| 11.50% | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 8 |
| 12.00% | 5 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 7 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹56.10; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 5 · 8 · 11 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.35 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 418 | 697 | 724 | 886 | 1,086 | 1,330 | 1,629 | 1,996 | 2,445 |
| growth % | 155.9 | 66.7 | 3.9 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 | 22.5 |
| EBITDA | 17 | 56 | 31 | 47 | 58 | 70 | 86 | 106 | 130 |
| margin % | 4.0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 5.3 |
| less depreciation | (15) | (15) | (16) | (17) | (21) | (25) | (31) | (38) | (46) |
| EBIT | 2 | 40 | 15 | 30 | 37 | 45 | 55 | 68 | 83 |
| less tax on EBIT | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||
| NOPAT | 31 | 37 | 46 | 56 | 69 | 84 | |||
| add depreciation | 15 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 21 | 25 | 31 | 38 | 46 |
| less capex | (10) | (13) | (16) | (61) | (75) | (76) | (75) | (69) | (56) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (11) | (14) | (17) | (21) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 40 | (5) | 42 | — | (26) | (17) | (1) | 21 | 54 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (25) | (14) | (1) | 15 | 34 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 35, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 30 | 37 | 45 | 55 | 68 | 83 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | |
| Profit before tax | 34 | 42 | 53 | 65 | 80 | |
| Profit after tax | 23 | 35 | 43 | 53 | 66 | 81 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 11 | (18) | (37) | (41) | (23) | 29 |
| Working capital | 41 | 50 | 61 | 75 | 92 | 112 |
| Net block and other assets | 819 | 873 | 925 | 968 | 999 | 1,008 |
| Debt | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 | 35 |
| Equity | 457 | 491 | 534 | 587 | 653 | 735 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 46 | 57 | 71 | 87 | 107 | |
| Investing (capex) | (75) | (76) | (75) | (69) | (56) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (29) | (19) | (4) | 18 | 51 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (29) | (19) | (4) | 18 | 51 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 22.5% | 5.3% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹8 | (86.2)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.