₹749per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹749implied FY26 P/E 8.8× · EV/EBITDA 3.8×
Against CMP ₹8,844.00−91.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3167%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹627₹991
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹5,842₹9,915
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 40 |
| PV of terminal value | 82 |
| Enterprise value | 122 |
| less net debt | 28 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 150 |
| ÷ 0.20 crore shares | ₹749 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 767 | 808 | 857 | 917 | 991 |
| 10.50% | 724 | 758 | 798 | 846 | 905 |
| 11.00% | 687 | 716 | 749 | 788 | 835 |
| 11.50% | 655 | 679 | 707 | 740 | 778 |
| 12.00% | 627 | 647 | 671 | 699 | 731 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹8,844.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 583 · 745 · 920 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.91 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.36 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.06 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 210 | 227 | 234 | 236 | 239 | 241 | 243 | 246 | 248 |
| growth % | 17.6 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| EBITDA | 56 | 56 | 53 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | 33 | 34 |
| margin % | 26.7 | 24.5 | 22.5 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 | 13.6 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (9) | (10) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) | (15) |
| EBIT | 48 | 47 | 43 | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| less tax on EBIT | (6) | (6) | (6) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |||
| NOPAT | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 | |||
| add depreciation | 8 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 15 |
| less capex | (10) | (16) | (19) | (13) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (17) | (18) |
| less working-capital build | — | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 23 | 13 | 14 | — | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 12 | 10 | 8 | 6 | 5 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 17 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 |
| Interest at 5% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | 18 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| Dividends | (8) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 28 | 40 | 51 | 61 | 70 | 78 |
| Working capital | 75 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 78 |
| Net block and other assets | 203 | 201 | 201 | 201 | 203 | 206 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 254 | 265 | 277 | 288 | 300 | 311 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 25 | 26 | 26 | 26 | 26 | |
| Investing (capex) | (13) | (14) | (16) | (17) | (18) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 12 | 11 | 10 | 9 | 8 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 1% | 13.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹749 | (91.5)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.