₹-3per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹(3)implied FY21 P/E (3.1)× · EV/EBITDA 0.1×
Against CMP ₹34.00−108.3%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY26-1851%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹(5)₹(2)
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹18₹40
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY22–FY26 free cash flow | 11 |
| PV of terminal value | (11) |
| Enterprise value | 1 |
| less net debt | (11) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | (10) |
| ÷ 3.68 crore shares | ₹(3) |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | (3) | (3) | (4) | (4) | (5) |
| 10.50% | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| 11.00% | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| 11.50% | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) | (3) |
| 12.00% | (2) | (2) | (2) | (3) | (3) |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹34.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | (5) · (3) · (0) |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.98 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | +0.16 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.01 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY19 | FY20 | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 77 | 68 | 64 | 61 | 58 | 55 | 53 | 50 |
| growth % | — | (10.9) | (5.7) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 8 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 |
| margin % | 10.5 | 18.3 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 | 16.6 |
| less depreciation | (11) | (13) | (11) | (10) | (10) | (9) | (9) | (9) |
| EBIT | (3) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| less tax on EBIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| NOPAT | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | ||
| add depreciation | 11 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 9 |
| less capex | — | — | (5) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (9) | (10) |
| less working-capital build | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | — | — | — | 6 | 4 | 2 | 1 | (1) |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | (1) |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 11, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY21 | FY22 | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Interest at 13.2% on debt | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | |
| Profit before tax | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | (2) | |
| Profit after tax | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) | (1) |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 1 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Working capital | 21 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 16 |
| Net block and other assets | 50 | 44 | 41 | 39 | 39 | 41 |
| Debt | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 | 11 |
| Equity | 40 | 39 | 38 | 36 | 35 | 34 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 10 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 8 | |
| Investing (capex) | (5) | (6) | (8) | (9) | (10) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 5 | 3 | 1 | (1) | (2) | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 5 | 3 | 1 | (1) | (2) | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY21 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 16.6% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹(3) | (108.3)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.