₹96per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹96implied FY26 P/E 47.2× · EV/EBITDA 3.9×
Against CMP ₹569.30−83.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3171%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹76₹136
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹398₹767
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 434 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,051 |
| Enterprise value | 1,484 |
| less net debt | 17 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,501 |
| ÷ 15.59 crore shares | ₹96 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 99 | 106 | 114 | 124 | 136 |
| 10.50% | 92 | 98 | 104 | 112 | 122 |
| 11.00% | 86 | 91 | 96 | 103 | 110 |
| 11.50% | 81 | 85 | 89 | 95 | 101 |
| 12.00% | 76 | 80 | 84 | 88 | 93 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹569.30; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 58 · 95 · 135 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.95 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.26 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.09 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 2,278 | 2,392 | 2,491 | 2,626 | 2,770 | 2,922 | 3,083 | 3,253 | 3,432 |
| growth % | 44.5 | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 | 5.5 |
| EBITDA | 374 | 369 | 320 | 380 | 402 | 424 | 447 | 472 | 498 |
| margin % | 16.4 | 15.4 | 12.8 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 | 14.5 |
| less depreciation | (152) | (182) | (204) | (226) | (238) | (251) | (265) | (280) | (295) |
| EBIT | 222 | 187 | 116 | 154 | 163 | 172 | 182 | 192 | 202 |
| less tax on EBIT | (28) | (30) | (32) | (34) | (36) | (37) | |||
| NOPAT | 125 | 133 | 141 | 148 | 156 | 165 | |||
| add depreciation | 152 | 182 | 204 | 226 | 238 | 251 | 265 | 280 | 295 |
| less capex | (270) | (217) | (218) | (236) | (249) | (273) | (298) | (325) | (354) |
| less working-capital build | — | (4) | (4) | (4) | (5) | (5) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 79 | 123 | 127 | — | 118 | 115 | 111 | 107 | 101 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 112 | 98 | 86 | 74 | 63 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 154 | 163 | 172 | 182 | 192 | 202 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 163 | 172 | 182 | 192 | 202 | |
| Profit after tax | 0 | 133 | 141 | 148 | 156 | 165 |
| Dividends | (12) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 17 | 135 | 250 | 361 | 468 | 569 |
| Working capital | 70 | 74 | 78 | 82 | 87 | 92 |
| Net block and other assets | 2,744 | 2,755 | 2,776 | 2,809 | 2,854 | 2,913 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 619 | 752 | 893 | 1,041 | 1,197 | 1,362 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 368 | 388 | 409 | 432 | 455 | |
| Investing (capex) | (249) | (273) | (298) | (325) | (354) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 118 | 115 | 111 | 107 | 101 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 118 | 115 | 111 | 107 | 101 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 5.5% | 14.5% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹96 | (83.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.