Models
WINSOME TEXTILE INDUSTRIES LTDBSE 514470Textiles & Apparels
₹218per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹218implied FY26 P/E 15.6× · EV/EBITDA 6.8×
Against CMP ₹81.06+168.4%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(20.0)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹132₹389
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹58₹105
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 135 |
| PV of terminal value | 576 |
| Enterprise value | 711 |
| less net debt | (280) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 431 |
| ÷ 1.98 crore shares | ₹218 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 230 | 259 | 294 | 336 | 389 |
| 10.50% | 200 | 224 | 252 | 286 | 328 |
| 11.00% | 174 | 194 | 218 | 245 | 279 |
| 11.50% | 151 | 168 | 188 | 212 | 239 |
| 12.00% | 132 | 146 | 163 | 183 | 206 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹81.06; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 141 · 215 · 299 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.80 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.55 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.07 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 876 | 823 | 865 | 896 | 927 | 960 | 993 | 1,028 | 1,064 |
| growth % | (8.3) | (6.0) | 5.1 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 |
| EBITDA | 93 | 88 | 101 | 105 | 108 | 112 | 116 | 120 | 124 |
| margin % | 10.6 | 10.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 |
| less depreciation | (22) | (22) | (22) | (23) | (23) | (24) | (25) | (26) | (27) |
| EBIT | 71 | 66 | 79 | 82 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 95 | 98 |
| less tax on EBIT | (22) | (23) | (23) | (24) | (25) | (26) | |||
| NOPAT | 60 | 63 | 65 | 67 | 70 | 72 | |||
| add depreciation | 22 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 |
| less capex | (24) | (53) | (11) | (55) | (57) | (52) | (46) | (39) | (32) |
| less working-capital build | — | (10) | (10) | (10) | (11) | (11) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 70 | 23 | 80 | — | 19 | 27 | 36 | 45 | 56 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 18 | 23 | 28 | 32 | 35 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 283, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 82 | 85 | 88 | 91 | 95 | 98 |
| Interest at 18% on debt | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | (51) | |
| Profit before tax | 34 | 37 | 40 | 44 | 47 | |
| Profit after tax | 27 | 25 | 27 | 30 | 32 | 34 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 3 | (16) | (26) | (28) | (20) | (2) |
| Working capital | 277 | 287 | 297 | 307 | 318 | 329 |
| Net block and other assets | 642 | 676 | 704 | 725 | 739 | 744 |
| Debt | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 | 283 |
| Equity | 331 | 356 | 383 | 413 | 445 | 479 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 39 | 41 | 44 | 47 | 50 | |
| Investing (capex) | (57) | (52) | (46) | (39) | (32) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (19) | (10) | (2) | 8 | 18 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (19) | (10) | (2) | 8 | 18 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 3.5% | 11.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹218 | 168.4% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.