₹179per share · Base Model Note
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹179implied FY26 P/E 14.2× · EV/EBITDA 10.3×
Against CMP ₹167.40+7.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies2.2%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3173%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹139₹259
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹166₹273
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 50,250 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,33,333 |
| Enterprise value | 1,83,583 |
| less net debt | (6,232) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 1,77,351 |
| ÷ 990.35 crore shares | ₹179 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 185 | 198 | 215 | 234 | 259 |
| 10.50% | 171 | 182 | 195 | 211 | 230 |
| 11.00% | 159 | 168 | 179 | 192 | 208 |
| 11.50% | 148 | 156 | 165 | 176 | 189 |
| 12.00% | 139 | 146 | 154 | 163 | 173 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹167.40; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 149 · 178 · 214 |
| Draws below the CMP | 33% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.70 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.18 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 90,488 | 89,760 | 89,088 | 92,624 | 96,329 | 1,00,182 | 1,04,189 | 1,08,357 | 1,12,691 |
| growth % | 14.1 | (0.8) | (0.7) | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 |
| EBITDA | 16,854 | 16,776 | 18,021 | 17,811 | 18,495 | 19,235 | 20,004 | 20,805 | 21,637 |
| margin % | 18.6 | 18.7 | 20.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 | 19.2 |
| less depreciation | (3,340) | (3,407) | (2,958) | (2,911) | (2,986) | (3,106) | (3,230) | (3,359) | (3,493) |
| EBIT | 13,513 | 13,369 | 15,063 | 14,901 | 15,509 | 16,129 | 16,774 | 17,445 | 18,143 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3,502) | (3,645) | (3,790) | (3,942) | (4,100) | (4,264) | |||
| NOPAT | 11,399 | 11,864 | 12,339 | 12,832 | 13,346 | 13,880 | |||
| add depreciation | 3,340 | 3,407 | 2,958 | 2,911 | 2,986 | 3,106 | 3,230 | 3,359 | 3,493 |
| less capex | (1,483) | (1,051) | (1,474) | (1,560) | (1,638) | (2,209) | (2,824) | (3,484) | (4,192) |
| less working-capital build | — | (293) | (304) | (317) | (329) | (342) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 11,577 | 16,571 | 15,469 | — | 12,920 | 12,931 | 12,922 | 12,892 | 12,839 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 12,263 | 11,057 | 9,955 | 8,947 | 8,027 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 16,787, dividends at 87.7% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 14,901 | 15,509 | 16,129 | 16,774 | 17,445 | 18,143 |
| Interest at 8.8% on debt | (1,477) | (1,477) | (1,477) | (1,477) | (1,477) | |
| Profit before tax | 14,032 | 14,652 | 15,297 | 15,968 | 16,666 | |
| Profit after tax | 13,197 | 10,734 | 11,209 | 11,702 | 12,216 | 12,749 |
| Dividends | (11,578) | (9,414) | (9,830) | (10,263) | (10,713) | (11,181) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 10,556 | 12,932 | 14,903 | 16,432 | 17,480 | 18,008 |
| Working capital | 7,359 | 7,652 | 7,956 | 8,273 | 8,602 | 8,944 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,23,493 | 1,22,144 | 1,21,248 | 1,20,841 | 1,20,966 | 1,21,665 |
| Debt | 16,787 | 16,787 | 16,787 | 16,787 | 16,787 | 16,787 |
| Equity | 88,269 | 89,590 | 90,968 | 92,408 | 93,910 | 95,478 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 13,428 | 14,010 | 14,616 | 15,245 | 15,901 | |
| Investing (capex) | (1,638) | (2,209) | (2,824) | (3,484) | (4,192) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (9,414) | (9,830) | (10,263) | (10,713) | (11,181) | |
| Net change in cash | 2,376 | 1,971 | 1,529 | 1,049 | 527 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 11,790 | 11,801 | 11,792 | 11,762 | 11,708 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 4% | 19.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹179 | 7.0% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.