Models
WONDERLA HOLIDAYS LTD.WONDERLALeisure Services
₹78per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹78implied FY26 P/E 4.9× · EV/EBITDA 3.0×
Against CMP ₹522.00−85.0%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31164%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹43₹151
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹455₹650
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (306) |
| PV of terminal value | 788 |
| Enterprise value | 482 |
| less net debt | 15 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 497 |
| ÷ 6.35 crore shares | ₹78 |
164% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 83 | 95 | 110 | 128 | 151 |
| 10.50% | 70 | 80 | 93 | 107 | 125 |
| 11.00% | 60 | 68 | 78 | 90 | 105 |
| 11.50% | 51 | 58 | 66 | 76 | 88 |
| 12.00% | 43 | 49 | 56 | 65 | 74 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹522.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 28 · 77 · 133 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.88 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.26 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 429 | 483 | 459 | 519 | 586 | 662 | 749 | 846 | 956 |
| growth % | 236.5 | 12.5 | (5.1) | 13.1 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 |
| EBITDA | 211 | 227 | 147 | 160 | 181 | 205 | 231 | 261 | 295 |
| margin % | 49.3 | 47.0 | 32.1 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 | 30.9 |
| less depreciation | (35) | (38) | (57) | (83) | (94) | (107) | (121) | (136) | (154) |
| EBIT | 176 | 189 | 90 | 77 | 87 | 98 | 111 | 125 | 141 |
| less tax on EBIT | (19) | (21) | (24) | (27) | (31) | (35) | |||
| NOPAT | 58 | 65 | 74 | 84 | 94 | 107 | |||
| add depreciation | 35 | 38 | 57 | 83 | 94 | 107 | 121 | 136 | 154 |
| less capex | (44) | (223) | (308) | (296) | (335) | (316) | (286) | (243) | (185) |
| less working-capital build | — | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 148 | (46) | (185) | — | (175) | (135) | (82) | (13) | 76 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | (166) | (116) | (63) | (9) | 47 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 2, dividends at 15.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 77 | 87 | 98 | 111 | 125 | 141 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 87 | 98 | 111 | 125 | 141 | |
| Profit after tax | 82 | 65 | 74 | 83 | 94 | 107 |
| Dividends | (13) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (17) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 17 | (168) | (315) | (410) | (437) | (378) |
| Working capital | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) | (29) |
| Net block and other assets | 1,959 | 2,200 | 2,409 | 2,574 | 2,681 | 2,712 |
| Debt | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Equity | 1,797 | 1,852 | 1,914 | 1,985 | 2,065 | 2,155 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 160 | 180 | 204 | 230 | 260 | |
| Investing (capex) | (335) | (316) | (286) | (243) | (185) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (10) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (17) | |
| Net change in cash | (185) | (147) | (95) | (27) | 59 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (175) | (135) | (82) | (13) | 76 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 13% | 30.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹78 | (85.0)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.