Models
XTGLOBAL INFOTECH LIMITEDXTGLOBALIT - Software
₹32per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹32implied FY26 P/E 37.3× · EV/EBITDA 17.4×
Against CMP ₹29.50+7.5%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies26.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3181%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹23₹48
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹25₹46
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 86 |
| PV of terminal value | 374 |
| Enterprise value | 460 |
| less net debt | (35) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 425 |
| ÷ 13.41 crore shares | ₹32 |
81% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 33 | 36 | 39 | 43 | 48 |
| 10.50% | 30 | 32 | 35 | 38 | 42 |
| 11.00% | 28 | 29 | 32 | 34 | 38 |
| 11.50% | 25 | 27 | 29 | 31 | 34 |
| 12.00% | 23 | 25 | 27 | 28 | 31 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹29.50; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 22 · 31 · 43 |
| Draws below the CMP | 42% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.76 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.43 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.40 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 242 | 217 | 234 | 369 | 479 | 623 | 810 | 1,053 | 1,369 |
| growth % | 11.6 | (10.3) | 7.8 | 57.5 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 24 | 24 | 22 | 26 | 35 | 45 | 58 | 76 | 99 |
| margin % | 10.1 | 11.0 | 9.6 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 | 7.2 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (9) | (8) | (6) | (8) | (11) | (14) | (18) | (23) |
| EBIT | 17 | 15 | 15 | 20 | 26 | 34 | 45 | 58 | 75 |
| less tax on EBIT | (3) | (4) | (5) | (7) | (9) | (11) | |||
| NOPAT | 17 | 22 | 29 | 38 | 49 | 64 | |||
| add depreciation | 8 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 11 | 14 | 18 | 23 |
| less capex | (12) | (2) | (1) | (7) | (9) | (12) | (16) | (21) | (28) |
| less working-capital build | — | (8) | (11) | (14) | (18) | (23) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | (3) | (1) | 16 | — | 13 | 17 | 22 | 28 | 36 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 13 | 15 | 17 | 19 | 23 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 49, dividends at 37.5% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 20 | 26 | 34 | 45 | 58 | 75 |
| Interest at 8.4% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 22 | 30 | 40 | 54 | 71 | |
| Profit after tax | 11 | 19 | 26 | 34 | 46 | 61 |
| Dividends | (4) | (7) | (10) | (13) | (17) | (23) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 14 | 17 | 20 | 26 | 33 | 43 |
| Working capital | 27 | 35 | 46 | 60 | 78 | 101 |
| Net block and other assets | 247 | 248 | 249 | 252 | 255 | 260 |
| Debt | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 | 49 |
| Equity | 211 | 222 | 239 | 260 | 289 | 327 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 19 | 26 | 34 | 46 | 60 | |
| Investing (capex) | (9) | (12) | (16) | (21) | (28) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (7) | (10) | (13) | (17) | (23) | |
| Net change in cash | 3 | 4 | 5 | 7 | 10 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 10 | 14 | 18 | 25 | 33 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 7.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹32 | 7.5% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.