₹156per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹156implied FY26 P/E —× · EV/EBITDA 8.3×
Against CMP ₹945.70−83.6%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3197%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹110₹247
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹366₹1,025
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 12 |
| PV of terminal value | 443 |
| Enterprise value | 455 |
| less net debt | (11) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 444 |
| ÷ 2.85 crore shares | ₹156 |
97% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 162 | 177 | 196 | 218 | 247 |
| 10.50% | 146 | 159 | 174 | 192 | 214 |
| 11.00% | 132 | 143 | 156 | 170 | 188 |
| 11.50% | 120 | 130 | 140 | 153 | 167 |
| 12.00% | 110 | 118 | 127 | 137 | 150 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹945.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 120 · 154 · 197 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.73 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.62 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.14 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 235 | 254 | 274 | 296 | 320 | 346 |
| growth % | — | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| EBITDA | 55 | 59 | 64 | 69 | 74 | 80 |
| margin % | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 | 23.2 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (9) | (9) |
| EBIT | 48 | 52 | 56 | 61 | 66 | 71 |
| less tax on EBIT | (12) | (13) | (14) | (15) | (17) | (18) |
| NOPAT | 36 | 39 | 42 | 45 | 49 | 53 |
| add depreciation | 6 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 9 |
| less capex | (59) | (64) | (54) | (42) | (28) | (11) |
| less working-capital build | — | (6) | (7) | (7) | (8) | (8) |
| Free cash flow to firm | — | (24) | (11) | 4 | 22 | 43 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |
| Present value | (23) | (10) | 3 | 15 | 27 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 31, dividends at 7.6% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 48 | 52 | 56 | 61 | 66 | 71 |
| Interest at 12.8% on debt | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | (4) | |
| Profit before tax | 48 | 52 | 57 | 62 | 67 | |
| Profit after tax | 37 | 36 | 39 | 42 | 46 | 50 |
| Dividends | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 20 | (10) | (27) | (29) | (14) | 22 |
| Working capital | 77 | 83 | 89 | 97 | 104 | 113 |
| Net block and other assets | 168 | 225 | 271 | 306 | 325 | 327 |
| Debt | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 31 |
| Equity | 184 | 217 | 253 | 292 | 335 | 381 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 37 | 40 | 43 | 47 | 51 | |
| Investing (capex) | (64) | (54) | (42) | (28) | (11) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (3) | (4) | |
| Net change in cash | (30) | (17) | (2) | 15 | 36 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (27) | (14) | 1 | 19 | 40 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 8% | 23.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹156 | (83.6)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.