₹270per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹270implied FY26 P/E 14.4× · EV/EBITDA 9.0×
Against CMP ₹969.00−72.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31106%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹186₹439
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹538₹1,025
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (145) |
| PV of terminal value | 2,780 |
| Enterprise value | 2,635 |
| less net debt | (32) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,603 |
| ÷ 9.64 crore shares | ₹270 |
106% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 281 | 310 | 344 | 386 | 439 |
| 10.50% | 252 | 276 | 304 | 338 | 379 |
| 11.00% | 227 | 247 | 270 | 298 | 331 |
| 11.50% | 205 | 222 | 242 | 265 | 292 |
| 12.00% | 186 | 201 | 218 | 237 | 260 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹969.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 150 · 263 · 394 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.90 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.33 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.15 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 671 | 880 | 1,207 | 1,569 | 2,040 | 2,652 | 3,448 | 4,482 |
| growth % | — | 31.3 | 37.1 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 180 | 220 | 292 | 380 | 494 | 642 | 834 | 1,085 |
| margin % | 26.8 | 25.0 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.2 | 24.2 |
| less depreciation | (29) | (57) | (88) | (115) | (149) | (194) | (252) | (327) |
| EBIT | 151 | 163 | 204 | 265 | 345 | 448 | 583 | 757 |
| less tax on EBIT | (49) | (63) | (82) | (107) | (139) | (180) | ||
| NOPAT | 156 | 202 | 263 | 342 | 444 | 577 | ||
| add depreciation | 29 | 57 | 88 | 115 | 149 | 194 | 252 | 327 |
| less capex | (93) | (311) | (317) | (411) | (446) | (464) | (452) | (393) |
| less working-capital build | — | (85) | (111) | (144) | (188) | (244) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (96) | (161) | — | (180) | (145) | (73) | 56 | 268 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (171) | (124) | (56) | 39 | 167 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 253, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 204 | 265 | 345 | 448 | 583 | 757 |
| Interest at 2.6% on debt | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | (7) | |
| Profit before tax | 259 | 338 | 442 | 576 | 751 | |
| Profit after tax | 170 | 197 | 258 | 337 | 439 | 572 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 221 | 36 | (114) | (192) | (141) | 121 |
| Working capital | 285 | 371 | 482 | 626 | 814 | 1,058 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,775 | 2,072 | 2,368 | 2,638 | 2,839 | 2,904 |
| Debt | 253 | 253 | 253 | 253 | 253 | 253 |
| Equity | 1,807 | 2,004 | 2,262 | 2,598 | 3,037 | 3,610 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 226 | 296 | 386 | 503 | 655 | |
| Investing (capex) | (411) | (446) | (464) | (452) | (393) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (185) | (150) | (78) | 51 | 263 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (185) | (150) | (78) | 51 | 263 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 24.2% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹270 | (72.1)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.