₹73per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹73implied FY26 P/E 7.6× · EV/EBITDA 5.0×
Against CMP ₹186.80−60.7%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY31102%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹53₹115
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹154₹405
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | (19) |
| PV of terminal value | 945 |
| Enterprise value | 926 |
| less net debt | 61 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 987 |
| ÷ 13.45 crore shares | ₹73 |
102% of the value sits after FY31. Usual when return on capital sits near the cost of capital; the 5 explicit years carry little of it.
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 76 | 83 | 91 | 102 | 115 |
| 10.50% | 69 | 75 | 82 | 90 | 100 |
| 11.00% | 63 | 68 | 73 | 80 | 88 |
| 11.50% | 57 | 62 | 66 | 72 | 79 |
| 12.00% | 53 | 56 | 61 | 65 | 71 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹186.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 2 · 72 · 124 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.81 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.53 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.17 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 776 | 1,304 | 1,908 | 2,480 | 3,224 | 4,191 | 5,448 | 7,083 |
| growth % | — | 68.1 | 46.3 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 | 30.0 |
| EBITDA | 71 | 114 | 185 | 241 | 313 | 407 | 528 | 687 |
| margin % | 9.1 | 8.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.7 |
| less depreciation | (8) | (15) | (37) | (47) | (61) | (80) | (104) | (135) |
| EBIT | 62 | 99 | 148 | 193 | 251 | 327 | 425 | 552 |
| less tax on EBIT | (38) | (50) | (65) | (84) | (109) | (142) | ||
| NOPAT | 110 | 144 | 187 | 243 | 316 | 410 | ||
| add depreciation | 8 | 15 | 37 | 47 | 61 | 80 | 104 | 135 |
| less capex | (46) | (67) | (107) | (139) | (154) | (165) | (169) | (161) |
| less working-capital build | — | (102) | (133) | (173) | (225) | (293) | ||
| Free cash flow to firm | (129) | (48) | — | (50) | (39) | (16) | 25 | 91 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | |||
| Present value | (48) | (33) | (12) | 17 | 57 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 45, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 148 | 193 | 251 | 327 | 425 | 552 |
| Interest at 19.8% on debt | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | (9) | |
| Profit before tax | 184 | 242 | 318 | 416 | 543 | |
| Profit after tax | 138 | 137 | 180 | 236 | 309 | 404 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 106 | 49 | 3 | (19) | (1) | 83 |
| Working capital | 341 | 444 | 577 | 750 | 975 | 1,268 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,106 | 1,198 | 1,291 | 1,376 | 1,442 | 1,469 |
| Debt | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 |
| Equity | 1,407 | 1,544 | 1,724 | 1,960 | 2,269 | 2,673 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 82 | 108 | 143 | 188 | 246 | |
| Investing (capex) | (139) | (154) | (165) | (169) | (161) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | (57) | (46) | (22) | 18 | 84 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | (57) | (46) | (22) | 18 | 84 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 30% | 9.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹73 | (60.7)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.