₹25per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹25implied FY26 P/E 18.3× · EV/EBITDA 8.4×
Against CMP ₹6.80+271.1%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies(9.3)%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3170%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹18₹39
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹4₹10
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 328 |
| PV of terminal value | 781 |
| Enterprise value | 1,109 |
| less net debt | (282) |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 827 |
| ÷ 32.77 crore shares | ₹25 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 26 | 29 | 32 | 35 | 39 |
| 10.50% | 24 | 26 | 28 | 31 | 34 |
| 11.00% | 22 | 23 | 25 | 28 | 30 |
| 11.50% | 20 | 21 | 23 | 25 | 27 |
| 12.00% | 18 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 24 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹6.80; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 17 · 25 · 34 |
| Draws below the CMP | 0% |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.77 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.42 |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.41 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 324 | 356 | 372 | 439 | 518 | 611 | 721 | 851 | 1,004 |
| growth % | 30.8 | 9.9 | 4.4 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 | 18.0 |
| EBITDA | (397) | 220 | 87 | 131 | 155 | 183 | 216 | 255 | 300 |
| margin % | (122.3) | 61.9 | 23.5 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.9 | 29.9 |
| less depreciation | (32) | (24) | (36) | (44) | (52) | (61) | (72) | (85) | (100) |
| EBIT | (429) | 196 | 51 | 87 | 103 | 122 | 144 | 169 | 200 |
| less tax on EBIT | (38) | (45) | (53) | (62) | (73) | (86) | |||
| NOPAT | 50 | 59 | 69 | 82 | 96 | 114 | |||
| add depreciation | 32 | 24 | 36 | 44 | 52 | 61 | 72 | 85 | 100 |
| less capex | (4) | (3) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (32) | (54) | (83) | (121) |
| less working-capital build | — | (9) | (11) | (13) | (15) | (18) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 38 | 48 | 72 | — | 86 | 88 | 87 | 83 | 75 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 82 | 75 | 67 | 58 | 47 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 338, dividends at 0% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 87 | 103 | 122 | 144 | 169 | 200 |
| Interest at 11% on debt | (37) | (37) | (37) | (37) | (37) | |
| Profit before tax | 66 | 84 | 106 | 132 | 163 | |
| Profit after tax | 39 | 37 | 48 | 60 | 75 | 92 |
| Dividends | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 57 | 121 | 188 | 253 | 315 | 370 |
| Working capital | 52 | 62 | 73 | 86 | 101 | 119 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,484 | 1,447 | 1,418 | 1,399 | 1,397 | 1,417 |
| Debt | 338 | 338 | 338 | 338 | 338 | 338 |
| Equity | 235 | 272 | 320 | 381 | 456 | 548 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | (0) | 0 | 0 | (0) |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 80 | 98 | 119 | 145 | 175 | |
| Investing (capex) | (15) | (32) | (54) | (83) | (121) | |
| Financing (dividends) | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Net change in cash | 65 | 66 | 66 | 62 | 54 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 65 | 66 | 66 | 62 | 54 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 18% | 29.9% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹25 | 271.1% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.