Models
ZEN TECHNOLOGIES LIMITEDZENTECAerospace & Defense
₹229per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹229implied FY26 P/E 11.4× · EV/EBITDA 8.0×
Against CMP ₹1,727.70−86.8%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies45.0%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3172%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹181₹324
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹1,223₹2,044
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 548 |
| PV of terminal value | 1,443 |
| Enterprise value | 1,991 |
| less net debt | 76 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 2,067 |
| ÷ 9.03 crore shares | ₹229 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 236 | 252 | 271 | 294 | 324 |
| 10.50% | 219 | 232 | 248 | 267 | 290 |
| 11.00% | 205 | 216 | 229 | 244 | 263 |
| 11.50% | 192 | 202 | 213 | 225 | 241 |
| 12.00% | 181 | 190 | 199 | 210 | 222 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹1,727.70; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 197 · 229 · 267 |
| Draws below the CMP | 100% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.75 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.64 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | −0.03 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 219 | 440 | 974 | 688 | 653 | 621 | 590 | 560 | 532 |
| growth % | 213.7 | 101.0 | 121.4 | (29.4) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) | (5.0) |
| EBITDA | 75 | 183 | 374 | 248 | 236 | 224 | 213 | 202 | 192 |
| margin % | 34.1 | 41.6 | 38.4 | 36.1 | 36.1 | 36.1 | 36.1 | 36.1 | 36.1 |
| less depreciation | (6) | (10) | (15) | (24) | (23) | (22) | (21) | (20) | (19) |
| EBIT | 69 | 174 | 358 | 224 | 213 | 202 | 192 | 183 | 173 |
| less tax on EBIT | (59) | (56) | (53) | (51) | (48) | (46) | |||
| NOPAT | 165 | 157 | 149 | 142 | 135 | 128 | |||
| add depreciation | 6 | 10 | 15 | 24 | 23 | 22 | 21 | 20 | 19 |
| less capex | (13) | (30) | (32) | (59) | (56) | (47) | (38) | (30) | (22) |
| less working-capital build | — | 18 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 15 | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 103 | (16) | (179) | — | 142 | 142 | 141 | 140 | 139 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 135 | 121 | 109 | 97 | 87 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 3, dividends at 9.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 224 | 213 | 202 | 192 | 183 | 173 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | (0) | |
| Profit before tax | 213 | 202 | 192 | 182 | 173 | |
| Profit after tax | 193 | 157 | 149 | 141 | 134 | 128 |
| Dividends | (18) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (12) | (12) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 79 | 206 | 333 | 461 | 588 | 715 |
| Working capital | 363 | 345 | 327 | 311 | 296 | 281 |
| Net block and other assets | 1,718 | 1,752 | 1,777 | 1,794 | 1,804 | 1,807 |
| Debt | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 |
| Equity | 1,949 | 2,091 | 2,226 | 2,355 | 2,477 | 2,592 |
| Balance check | 0 | (0) | 0 | (0) | (0) | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 198 | 188 | 178 | 170 | 161 | |
| Investing (capex) | (56) | (47) | (38) | (30) | (22) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (15) | (14) | (13) | (12) | (12) | |
| Net change in cash | 127 | 127 | 128 | 127 | 127 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 142 | 141 | 141 | 140 | 139 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | -5% | 36.1% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹229 | (86.8)% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.