₹503per share · Base Model Note
Revenue growth, the horizon and scenarios are yours to change. Every other input is part of the Trader plan; saving, sharing a saved link and the live-formula workbook are part of the Institutional plan.
Scenario
Value per share, your model₹503implied FY26 P/E 14.7× · EV/EBITDA 12.3×
Against CMP ₹429.00+17.2%close of 2026-09-10
Growth the CMP implies2.6%revenue, a year for 5 years, on your other inputs
Value after FY3175%share of enterprise value in the terminal
This figure is the arithmetic of your inputs and nothing else. MarketPing publishes no fair value, target or rating; the model is yours.
Where the methods land · ₹ per share · the dashed line is the CMP
DCF, rate ±1 · growth ±1your model across the sensitivity grid
₹395₹717
52-week rangetraded range, a fact not a value
₹423₹869
From enterprise to equity · ₹ crore
| PV of FY27–FY31 free cash flow | 2,782 |
| PV of terminal value | 8,212 |
| Enterprise value | 10,993 |
| less net debt | 416 |
| less non-controlling interest | 0 |
| add non-operating investments | 0 |
| Equity value | 11,409 |
| ÷ 22.70 crore shares | ₹503 |
Free cash flow, filed and modelled · ₹ '000 crore
Filed, cash from operations − capexModelled free cash flow to firm
Sensitivity · ₹ per share
Down Across| WACC ↓terminal growth → | 4.0% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 5.5% | 6.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10.00% | 518 | 554 | 598 | 651 | 717 |
| 10.50% | 480 | 510 | 546 | 588 | 640 |
| 11.00% | 448 | 473 | 503 | 537 | 579 |
| 11.50% | 420 | 441 | 466 | 495 | 529 |
| 12.00% | 395 | 414 | 435 | 459 | 487 |
The outlined cell is your model. Green figures sit above the CMP of ₹429.00; n/a marks a terminal growth at or above the discount rate. Steps: WACC and terminal growth ±0.5 point, growth ±2, margin ±1.
Distribution of outcomes · 4,000 draws · growth, margin and the discount rate vary together
| 10th · 50th · 90th percentile, ₹ per share | 422 · 500 · 596 |
| Draws below the CMP | 13% |
| Rank correlation with discount rate | −0.65 |
| Rank correlation with ebitda margin | +0.65 |
| Rank correlation with revenue growth | +0.31 |
Each driver is drawn from a PERT distribution between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios (or ±50% growth, ±20% margin when there is one scenario), with the discount rate ±1.5 points. Seeded, so the same inputs give the same picture.
Projected cash flow to the firm · ₹ crore
History Forward| ₹ crore | FY23 | FY24 | FY25 | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 4,848 | 4,902 | 5,281 | 5,687 | 6,114 | 6,573 | 7,065 | 7,595 | 8,165 |
| growth % | 14.2 | 1.1 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 | 7.5 |
| EBITDA | 552 | 872 | 817 | 891 | 960 | 1,032 | 1,109 | 1,192 | 1,282 |
| margin % | 11.4 | 17.8 | 15.5 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 | 15.7 |
| less depreciation | (183) | (134) | (102) | (91) | (98) | (105) | (113) | (122) | (131) |
| EBIT | 369 | 738 | 715 | 800 | 862 | 927 | 996 | 1,071 | 1,151 |
| less tax on EBIT | (194) | (209) | (224) | (241) | (259) | (279) | |||
| NOPAT | 606 | 653 | 702 | 755 | 812 | 873 | |||
| add depreciation | 183 | 134 | 102 | 91 | 98 | 105 | 113 | 122 | 131 |
| less capex | (37) | (16) | (37) | (54) | (55) | (76) | (100) | (126) | (157) |
| less working-capital build | — | (42) | (45) | (48) | (52) | (56) | |||
| Free cash flow to firm | 678 | 626 | 528 | — | 654 | 687 | 720 | 755 | 791 |
| Discount factor | 0.949 | 0.855 | 0.770 | 0.694 | 0.625 | ||||
| Present value | 621 | 587 | 555 | 524 | 494 |
History columns are the filed years (free cash flow there is cash from operations − capex, as filed); the base year and everything to its right come from the engine. Forward is the explicit horizon of the model itself: 3, 5 or 10 years, then flat.
The three statements, projected · ₹ crore · debt held at 0, dividends at 39.3% of profit
| ₹ crore | FY26 | FY27 | FY28 | FY29 | FY30 | FY31 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income statement | ||||||
| EBIT | 800 | 862 | 927 | 996 | 1,071 | 1,151 |
| Interest at 8% on debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| Profit before tax | 862 | 927 | 996 | 1,071 | 1,151 | |
| Profit after tax | 775 | 653 | 702 | 755 | 812 | 873 |
| Dividends | (304) | (257) | (276) | (297) | (319) | (343) |
| Balance sheet, year end | ||||||
| Cash | 416 | 814 | 1,225 | 1,648 | 2,084 | 2,532 |
| Working capital | 556 | 598 | 643 | 691 | 743 | 799 |
| Net block and other assets | 5,111 | 5,068 | 5,039 | 5,025 | 5,030 | 5,057 |
| Debt | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Equity | 4,719 | 5,116 | 5,542 | 6,001 | 6,493 | 7,023 |
| Balance check | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Cash flow | ||||||
| From operations | 709 | 763 | 820 | 881 | 947 | |
| Investing (capex) | (55) | (76) | (100) | (126) | (157) | |
| Financing (dividends) | (257) | (276) | (297) | (319) | (343) | |
| Net change in cash | 398 | 411 | 423 | 436 | 448 | |
| Free cash flow to equity | 654 | 687 | 720 | 755 | 791 | |
Other liabilities are held at their FY26 level, so the check tests only what the model moves: cash, working capital, net block and other assets, debt and equity. A non-zero check would mean the three statements no longer tie.
Scenarios side by side · ₹ per share
| Scenario | Template | Growth | Margin | Rate | Terminal | ₹ / share | vs CMP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Base · editing | DCF | 7.5% | 15.7% | 11.00% | 5% | ₹503 | 17.2% |
A scenario is a full set of inputs under a name. Keep Base as the filed history carried forward; add Bull and Bear by saving the current inputs under those names and moving the two or three assumptions you actually hold a view on. The distribution above draws each driver between the lowest and highest value across your scenarios, so three scenarios give it a real range; with one scenario it falls back to fixed bands.